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WHETHER THE EUR/USD IS READY FOR A LOWER LOW

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted that inflation expectations do not point to risks of prolonged overshooting, adding that the EU still needs an accommodative monetary policy stance. On the other hand, US Federal Reserve chief Powell said that “it's fair to say” inflation is more concerning than earlier this year, citing supply chain issues. He also repeated that they “have all but met” the test for tapering. On Wednesday, the EU will release the September Economic Sentiment Indicator, foreseen at 116.9, while multiple ECB officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day.

EUR/USD traded lower yesterday to hit support once again near the 1.1676 barriers today in Asia. However, it has yet to confirm a forthcoming lower low since August 19th and continues to trade below 200-EMA, more importantly, below the downside resistance line taken from the high of August 2nd. Therefore, the experts' sentiment is that the short-term picture is negative.
An apparent dip below 1.1676 will confirm a forthcoming lower low. It may initially target the 1.1600 zones, defined as a support by the lows of the end of last year, the break of which could carry more significant bearish implications. It could allow the bears to shoot for the 1.1400 key psychological area.

On the upside, in order to start examining a reversal, the bulls would like to see a break above 1.1900. This will not only confirm a forthcoming higher high on a daily chart, but it may also confirm the break above the aforementioned downside line. The bulls may then get encouraged to climb towards the 1.2000 area or much higher to 1.2200.


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