It took PA three months and a half to complete 1115 pips long dip after it spent a similar amount of time hovering onto the upper limit of the yearly channel. The recent stop was less than a hundred pips away from a 61.8 fibo retracement (at 1.1185) (low: 1.033, high: 1.1255) and has not yet been retested. It is clear to me that we are at a crossroads where one season/cycle ends to let another begin. If there is anything I can recommend, it is to read the article below.
The regular bullish divergence on the daily chart (MACD) has yield impressive results, propelling the price around 340 pips north, and it is not finished yet. The 4h chart which entered into a bearish divergence (MACD) has to strengthen for at least one more day, leaving the gate open to our final TP zone 1.1690-1.1720. The RSI suggests a likely scenario at 67.65 (4h chart) and 55.49 (daily chart), both below 70 and heading towards it. In addition, 1.1720 is a 76.4 fibo retracement (high: 1.1850, low: 1.1298)
If one studies closely the trendlines I drew on the chart, it will see the following:
(Monday) The price might return to the lower limit of the uptrend channel and find support on the red trendline.
It then may be propelled through the teal and blue lines towards the limits of our previous symmetrical triangle (daily chart) which are going to put resistance and give us an entry for a 100 pips short.
(Tuesday) If the scenario I wrote for Monday does not happen, then for sure it will happen on Tuesday.
The price will then make a 100 pips move south but find support onto the red trendline again.
(Wednesday) The price will make a final attempt to move upwards but be rejected by either teal or orange trendline. All three, teal, orange and green lines intersect in the same place. It means that either from that point the price will continue to move upwards or it will complete this cycle. By this time, the price will be out of the upwards channel on the 1h/4h chart.
(Thursday) If the price moves down, then the next support after the red trendline will be offered by the up-aimed magenta line.
(Friday) After 2 weeks long turmoil, the PA will take a rest.
NOTE: If the price is to move up, a key resistance after 1.1720 will be 1.1820.
What does September bring us?
In my opinion, there is one more impulse wave (on the daily chart) that has to happen before the price retakes its upwards direction. The 3rd impulse wave (5-3 EW) which is the last one, will most likely make a truncation and bottom on either the sea-blue trendline or onto the down-aimed magenta line. Once all 5 waves are finished, an ABC corrective wave will happen that could propel price to 1.200x area and so finish the 5-3 EW (in October-November).
Lots of winning pips to everybody!
The regular bullish divergence on the daily chart (MACD) has yield impressive results, propelling the price around 340 pips north, and it is not finished yet. The 4h chart which entered into a bearish divergence (MACD) has to strengthen for at least one more day, leaving the gate open to our final TP zone 1.1690-1.1720. The RSI suggests a likely scenario at 67.65 (4h chart) and 55.49 (daily chart), both below 70 and heading towards it. In addition, 1.1720 is a 76.4 fibo retracement (high: 1.1850, low: 1.1298)
If one studies closely the trendlines I drew on the chart, it will see the following:
- The intersection of the magenta lines was key to an extended bullish rally which was resisted by the blue line and then by the upper limit of the channel and the teal trendline.
- The blue trendline offered support for a short period of time but then gave in and the price found support onto the lower limit of the channel.
- After hovering a few hours on the lower limit of the channel, the price spiked towards the red line which put moderate resistance and then let the price reach the mid-trendline of the channel and make a peak onto the teal trendline.
(Monday) The price might return to the lower limit of the uptrend channel and find support on the red trendline.
It then may be propelled through the teal and blue lines towards the limits of our previous symmetrical triangle (daily chart) which are going to put resistance and give us an entry for a 100 pips short.
(Tuesday) If the scenario I wrote for Monday does not happen, then for sure it will happen on Tuesday.
The price will then make a 100 pips move south but find support onto the red trendline again.
(Wednesday) The price will make a final attempt to move upwards but be rejected by either teal or orange trendline. All three, teal, orange and green lines intersect in the same place. It means that either from that point the price will continue to move upwards or it will complete this cycle. By this time, the price will be out of the upwards channel on the 1h/4h chart.
(Thursday) If the price moves down, then the next support after the red trendline will be offered by the up-aimed magenta line.
(Friday) After 2 weeks long turmoil, the PA will take a rest.
NOTE: If the price is to move up, a key resistance after 1.1720 will be 1.1820.
What does September bring us?
In my opinion, there is one more impulse wave (on the daily chart) that has to happen before the price retakes its upwards direction. The 3rd impulse wave (5-3 EW) which is the last one, will most likely make a truncation and bottom on either the sea-blue trendline or onto the down-aimed magenta line. Once all 5 waves are finished, an ABC corrective wave will happen that could propel price to 1.200x area and so finish the 5-3 EW (in October-November).
Lots of winning pips to everybody!
Trade active:
The price reached a key resistance area! The mid-trendline (4h channel) and the orange trendline (lower limit of the previous symmetrical triangle on the daily chart).
Trade active:
TP zone 1.1690 - 1.1720 was reached.
Trade active:
An evening star on the 4h chart. Shorting to 1.1578 (MS1)
Trade active:
The price made a low yesterday at 1.1652 and then climbed back up to create a lower high (1h/4h chart). This gives me confidence that the price will dip to the 1.15s.
Trade closed: target reached:
The price reached the 1.15x area.
