EURUSD - Policy divergence keeps bias short

Buy the rumour, sell the fact. The ECB signalled an end to QE but the conditionality attached, plus the explicit timing-related forward guidance for future rate moves was interpreted dovishly by the market and sent the euro tumbling. That is obviously in contrast to the Fed, which seems to be growing more confident in the outlook for growth and inflation.

Our view remains short on EurUsd.