1) In the context of a medium term trend, an a-b-c expanded flat from Dec 3 points to 'c' of 2 to 1.0750, then a larger run kicking off
2) A wave 4 triangle suggests this move from Dec 3 to Dec 9 was 'a' of a triangle. 'b' of a triangle likely presses towards 1.05-1.06.
Much above 1.1048 and these shorter term patterns are hampered and see the December 4 post for a medium term analysis.
Keep a close eye on the Speculative Sentiment Index. It is a contrarian indicator and if begins to run lower than -2.0, then that might suggests this short term view isn't going to happen. It is currently printing at -1.6. You can follow real time S S I here.
There is some minor support in this area (currently price is printing 1.0720).
Sentiment is growing more bullish which isn't good for a bullish trader. Current Sentiment reading is +1.1. Perhaps wait for resistance trend lines or horizontal resistance to break prior to testing bullish waters.
For example, wave 2 typically retraces 50-78% of wave 1. Well, if I enter near the 61-78% retracement area, place my stop loss below the start of the supposed wave 1, then even if price only makes it to the price area of the end of wave 1, I have a 1.5-3x reward to risk ratio.
This assumes only getting to the recent swing high. If it is a wave 3 higher, then, even higher levels exist.
So bottom line, there are certain areas in the wave count where good RR ratios exist and I preserve the capital for those moments.
There are 3 pieces of structure I look for:
1) Symmetry on the time distance from the head to the left shoulder vs the distance from the head to the right shoulder
2) Symmetry on the height of both the left and right shoulders - I look for their height to be nearly equal
3) I look for a horizontal or slightly downward sloping neckline
Based on the 3 items, #2 and #3 are fairly clean. #1 is close. So it could be interpreted as a H&S.
Sentiment would support further losses in the pair.
What you are seeing with the 6 different counts are people's interpretations of the guidelines. If each of the 6 counts haven't broken any rules, then they are still possible. Some of the counts are going to be higher probability, but even the lower probability counts are still possible.
In the end, you hit on a SUPER IMPORTANT concept..."Thankfully some of them brings the same result in the short term..."
If there are multiple counts that point in the same direction, it becomes a trading opportunity. We can sort which was the wave count later.
That concept was the genesis of this EURUSD post...there are both medium term bullish and medium term bearish counts that point to a shorter term sell off. Therefore, a good risk to reward ratio exists towards 1.0750. That doesn't mean it will work out as profitable, but the risk to reward ratio is strong enough such that I can be wrong more than I'm right and still have a chance to grow the account. I don't know about you...but I'm wrong a lot and appreciate that grace!