JWagnerFXTrader
Short

EURUSD Bears Waking Up

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2065 6 25
The wave picture has gotten fuzzy over the past 24 hours. I am beginning to lean more towards today's high as a 'B' wave which suggests a mutli-hundred pip sell off is on the horizon.

If it develops, I'll adjust the labels on the chart when counts get eliminated.

Note the divergence on RSI ...that is also indicative of B waves and ending waves.

On a side note, German Bunds found support at a 4 year trend line today. The EURUSD             has been running in the opposite direction of Bunds. So if Bunds are supported, EURUSD             is likely capped.

IF...and that is a big IF...Bunds crack and break lower through support, we'll likely see the EURUSD             scream higher. I think we eventually receive this scenario...but not yet. So as the EURUSD             corrects lower, there'll be a spot where EURUSD             can be bought in anticipation of Bunds cracking down and EURUSD             beginning a big up trend.

We'll keep an eye on the 1.10-1.11 area for clues. 1.0815 likely holds up.
YuzukiChan
a year ago
"I think we eventually receive this scenario...but not yet." Agreed.
Good news: We know the future now!
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO YuzukiChan
a year ago
Thank you for sharing the chart Yuzuki. What pattern are you thinking is developing after the (5) on your chart?
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YuzukiChan JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
I've speculated too much on that. Now just holding back to see what happens : ) Maybe now we're in Z. Or maybe the (5) shouldn't be there but at the end of the Gartley. Then we may be in a zigzag.
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YuzukiChan JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
I've speculated too much on that. Now just holding back to see what happens : ) Maybe now we're in Z. Or maybe the (5) shouldn't be there but at the end of the Gartley. Then we may be in a zigzag.
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Wow - this dip on the EURUSD barely held 1.1180 listed in option #1 above. So option #1 is still alive. Bunds are rallying today and EURUSD has been holding an inverse relationship to Bunds recently. Therefore, I'm not buying this dip in EURUSD yet. Waiting for lower levels noted in options #2 and #3 on the chart.

snapshot
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I've changed the labels on the chart to reflect the current 'c' wave we are in.

The behavior in the current area of 1.1120-1.1150 will help determine if we are option #2 or #3 in the original chart (I've deleted option #1 in the chart below).

If we continue to sell off below 1.1120, then option #2 flat correction is elevated.

A bounce higher immediately that breaks the channel elevates option #3 triangle and we slosh sideways.

snapshot
+1 Reply
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