Sforex

EURUSD: Fundamental still dominate E/U reaction, but be cautious

Short
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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Next week, North Ameica market closes on Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving day, only opens in three days: Mon, Tue, and Wed. Most traders back to their family for holiday so I don't expect a significant move in FX market . Last week, volatility and volume is very low, with holiday incoming, it's hard to bring volatility and volume come back.

Main focus is:

- US Durable Goods Orders
- US GDP revision
- US PCE data
- US Consumer Confidence.

- Germany GDP

Fundamental still dominate market, we only have one more month in this year: December, and market is waiting for two last central bank meeting : FED and ECB, so what do they really expect ?

- A FED 'liftoff" and guidance for next move of rate.
-Expanding stimulus of ECB

I'm confident that FED will finish this financial year by a rate hike and ECB prepare for New Year by a rate cut and expand "QE", so I continue to support the decline of EURUSD .

Only 200 pips to the Year Low at 1.0450 , at least EURUSD should test this level before the end of year, and I am pricing EURUSD to this level.

What do I actually wants to share in this article ?.

That is we abandoned Technical only concentrating in Fundamental. When Fundamental is over, market will back to TA.

Technical shows that EURUSD is in the oversold zone for a long time ,and it runs too far from Kumo cloud.

While SMA100 ,SMA200, and SMA50 are converge at 1.1100 . That point shapes a strong gravity force which could drag EURUSD backs to this level.

Hence, traders should be cautious.

IF ECB REFUSE TO EXPAND STIMULUS OR FED REFUSE TO HIKE RATE, THIS WILL TRIGGER PROFIT TAKING AND STRONG RECOVER OF EUR.

ONLY ONE CASE HAPPENS, THIS WILL OCCUR.

The worse case, both cases happens, please forget USDollar ( ha ha)

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