So, this one was more complicated than I realized yesterday, but the outcome should be the same overall, with a downward trend in the pair. What I DIDN'T see is the triangle forming, funneling pricing toward a breakout. Initially I thought the upper band break was a return to the previous upward trend, but after looking at some other analysis, it looked more like it was still in expected range.
It isn't until TODAY (Tues) that it appears more obvious that the conjunction created a downward breakout, which should send us to the support level around 1.20000 (which is my target).
I'll be using a trailing stop here, because I'm still not 100% confident we won't see another bounce before target. Maybe 1.20500/1.20400.
If support breaks at 1.20000, we could see a decline toward previous lows around 1.16000.
It isn't until TODAY (Tues) that it appears more obvious that the conjunction created a downward breakout, which should send us to the support level around 1.20000 (which is my target).
I'll be using a trailing stop here, because I'm still not 100% confident we won't see another bounce before target. Maybe 1.20500/1.20400.
If support breaks at 1.20000, we could see a decline toward previous lows around 1.16000.
Comment:
Pivot w/1hr candles at 1.20725 just broke, so I'm pretty confident we're in downward territory.