4xForecaster

Is $EUR vs. $USD Rallying Back To 1.38865? #euro #forex $bund

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
At 1.04613, the nadir of last month also marked the exact level at which the LEFT completion of the geometry sent price to its 1-4 Line validation.

Upon a new month, price rose from that geometric             validation, and appears to remains in suspension as of this writing (23 APR             2015).

Just as important, a new geometry has reached completion at its 5th plot, and since then has fallen further, just as to complete its prior geometric             sibling, as just described above.


snapshot


At this point, there are TWO possible options, which have to be reviewed in correlation with this new geometric             completion:

1 - Ether price consolidates with a NET BEARISH move, such that price attains the 1.618-Fibonacci extension as shown in the chart, and in this adverse excursive process would validate an ectopic Point-5 as its 5-prime (5'),

OR

2 - Price rallies from the current level, and based on the "Off-Set Rule" attains a re-balancing of the past years gyration by validating the 1.38865-to-1.39927 range.


OVERALL:

As you ma recall, I have released hints of this pattern completion by posting the large geometry as a background to the recent lessons on "Advanced Market Geometries" (see it here: ). Considering the current "Fork in the road" situation, I thought it was worth releasing the chart with the extent of details as shown in the illustration and start a health and edifying discussion on what the direction might be.

As you may already suspect, I will side with the BULLISH outlook, but an interim decline to complete a 5-prime definition should be entertained at this point - Let's keep this large time-frame under the elbow for now, as we are currently dealing with the recent bullish geometry just reelased (see it here: ).

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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@4xForecaster

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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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22 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:

Based on the recent price action, the lower Fibonacci extensions which we had defined earlier as possible springboard levels for a yet-to-been attained bullish targets have been ignored - Instead, price rallied, ignoring these Fib-defined levels and moved on every so closely to the Model-defined target last April 29th 2015, namely:

TG-Hi = 1.17801 - 29 APR 2015

At this point, we are left to ponder on the technical mechanism by which price might reach not only that target, but possibly pursue more august levels.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The Model offers the following set of charts:


$EURUSD - H4 Chart:
snapshot

- In this H4 chart, a smaller Geo illustrates completion of its entire cycle as price found support at that small Geo's Point-4 level, as expected per the Geo's Off-Set Rule. A larger Geo (BLUE) is also shown, having consumed its own 5-point regimen, but now contemplating a 1-4 Line validation, which is the level which the Wolfe Wave aims as its Take-Profit dynamic level. In the mean time, a mid-size Geo (GREY) completed a 5-point regimen as well, at a 5-prime position. Here again, the geometric implication is that of the high-probability reversal towards that Geo (GREY)'s Point-4 level, as per its same compensatory geometric Off-Set Rule - See dashed arrow delineating the probable price pathway with a solid floor defined at that Geo (GREY)'s Point-4 level.


$EURUSD - DAILY Chart:
snapshot

In this DAILY chart, a most immediate ceiling is speculated at 1.15254, short of the TG-Hi = 1.17801 defined on 29 APR 2015. The colored area (light pink) defines the floor just discussed in H4, as well as the potential interim ceiling as price is likely to negotiate higher notes. In this same DAILY chart, there are TWO new bullish targets, defined as:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015.

These two optimistic targets have a reason for being, which we might attempt to justify at the WEEKLY and MONTHLY levels, IF and only IF price were to rally above the most proximate 1.17801 target. Note that this 1.17801 target would represent a bracketing of the Fibonacci extensions 1.414 and 1.618, relative to the reactive price action that ensued a multi-year bearish swing.


Question now should be geared towards whether a minimal 0.386 or even an intermediate 0.500 Fibonacci retracement is worth considering as price appears to gain added bullish momentum - This is exactly what we might find in the following WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, especially as these levels relate to the TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015 and TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015, just defined today.



$EURUSD - WEEKLY Chart:
snapshot

This WEEKLY chart is important as it may offer a justification of further rallying. What is illustrated is the completion of a 5-point regiment through the Geo, with an implied expectation of a reactive rally, as should occur at completion of this geometry. The Geo is now complete with its reciprocal ab = cd symmetry in Leg 1-2 (here, symmetry is inverted), a complex Elliott Wave-based TZZ in its Leg 2-3, as well as a simpler Elliott Wave ZZ linking the Leg 3-4 (Point-4 could arguably be at the prior structural high right below 1.5000, but this would have little impact in the projections of the Geo's targets).


$EURUSD - MONTHLY Chart:
snapshot

As mentioned above, I would attempt to demonstrate a possible technical mechanism by which price might rally to the targets just defined - Here again:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015

In essence, this MONTHLY chart offers a Fibonacci-based rationale for such possible mechanism of ascent, considering that:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015 is nearly coming into alignment with 0.386-Fib (for this monthly scale, of course)

whereas

2 - TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015 is coming in near perfect alignment with 0.500-Fib, valued at 1.32491.


OVERALL:

Above bullish scenario would become invalidated if price were to carve out lower-lows. However, for the time being, there is a sense that as the #USDollar continues to weaken, antipodian currencies and commodities are likely to take flight (see recent predictive analysis and forecasts in #USDollar, $GLD, $XPT and $WTI).

At this point, I would simply concentrate on what might occur relative to the most immediate target define back in APRIL 2015, as this level remains a risk for bulls.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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+1 Reply
16 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:


$EURUSD may be carving out a geometric path to bullish target ... Worth watching:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
Hello David,

I found a WW, with clear support and resistances on its targets. Looks like it wants to test or even break out of the downtrend line since 2014. See the chart speaks for itself.
snapshot


A bit zoomed in for a better view. RSI is showing a potential bullish divergence also.
snapshot


Fibbonacci levels also match.
snapshot
Reply
Hello @LighthouseKeeper,

Thank you for posting these great insights.

Yes, this pattern within a smaller timeframe is what I posted in a finer grain analysis - See it here:




David
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
Hi David,

Good to see we see the same, haven't looked at it earlier but it is 1+1 indeed.!
+1 Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$EURUSD continues to carve out higher highs as forecast; Bullish target @1.17810 remains in force:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECB
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD rallied, hit forecast range per "Off-Set Rule"; Bulls remain defensive down to 1.08476:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
29 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD continues to rally as forecast; Implied Geo eyes Point-4 at structural resistance ahead:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
28 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$EURUSD bounced off of lowest support; Expecting reactive rally into 1.11500; Nascent Geo in background:

snapshot


$EUR #ECB
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

Tech-Note:

Look for possible "Geo-Anchor" provided at recent price inflection - Green asterix in chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
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