EZIO-FX

Idea for the week

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
We have a great chart for next week the price could possibly go and rejectUS consumption remains strong, the labour market is robust but yesterday revealed a sharp drop in growth (1.6%) when compared to estimates (2.5%) and the forecast from the Atlanta Fed (2.7%). The concerning data followed just days from a surprisingly disappointing PMI number for US manufacturing which narrowly entered into a contraction, although, it is the flash data so markets will be looking out for any upward revisions to the final print. Still, early signs have now emerged that the US economy is perhaps not as impervious to restrictive rates as was once thought.

The quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) PCE prices that are released alongside US GDP yesterday revealed a notable surprise – continuing the ongoing theme of stubborn inflation, which some may argue, is re-accelerating. The actual GDP print revealed a sizeable miss, initially sending the dollar lower but the move was short-lived due to the effect of the higher price data.

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