EURUSD Must Still Complete Minuette Wave 5 Before Retracing

The wave count I worked on yesterday appears to be correct based on the direction prices are moving today. However, I can't find a five wave move on any relevant time frame from the barrier triangle I was working on yesterday. As a result, I think that minuette wave 4 is developing a double three rather than a barrier triangle and we still haven't broken out of minuette wave 4 yet. We should still need one more small push down that develops in five waves before we begin the minute wave 4 retracement.

Comment:

Prices have hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which would be a pretty deep retracement for minuette wave 4. It is more probable we have already begun minute wave 4 up because of the retracement level hit and because I can count a five-wave up movement. However, I must admit that I had to force the wave count to make a final minuette wave 5 down at 0.9952, so I don't feel particularly confident with this setup even though it is the most probable. Another thing that bothers me about the wave count is that I can easily count a five-wave up move to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This would imply wave 4 is forming as a zigzag which is definitely possible, but it's more common for wave 4 to develop as a flat, triangle, or combination. I am attaching an image below of the most likely outcome based on the wave count right now, but I urge caution with making trading decisions based on this setup because I don't feel very confident with the odds implied by this count.

Comment:

Trade closed manually:

The title of this analysis is no longer correct. I'm moving updates to this idea: