JWagnerFXTrader

2 Views Suggest Counter Trend Bounce Higher

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1800 12 20
As we approach major news events, one exercise I like to do is assess the possible wave picture before the event so when the volatility of the event hits, I'm mentally prepared with a plan. For anybody that has traded for a while, we've been caught in 'chasing' mode during a volatile news event countless times and it is no fun.

What strikes me is that Thursday's sell off stopped at a confluence of wave relationships near 1.1090. Therefore, as the labels on the chart suggest, the potential for a move up to 1.1300 is elevated.

Even if Thursday's sell off was a wave 'b' of an expanded flat, that still suggests a bounce higher to at least 1.1250.

Retail sentiment has been increasing which suggests the longer term trend is shifting lower so any bounce higher may be one to consider shorting...but not until the 1.13 area.

A break below Thursday's low in conjunction with a GBPUSD             break down may suggest a powerful 3rd wave lower is already underway.

*Feel free to share your views as well. I'm always looking for other options.

ChatchaiVong
a year ago
thank so much.
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Looks like that support level held up again, after the news. Created a double bottom, with a 200 SMA directly under it as well. Hopefully we get some long movement. Thank you for the analysis
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Heelfan23
a year ago
Indeed Heelfan23 - the same patterns are still on the table. An expanded flat might run into resistance near 1.1250. Otherwise, we'll likely see 1.1300-1.1400.

By virtue of your handle, are you an UNC hoops fan?
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Heelfan23 PRO JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
I agree!!

Indeed I am, since I was a kid....
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Heelfan23
a year ago
That's a great program to follow. I'm an Indiana fan though we won't have much to cheer for this year.
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Heelfan23 PRO JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
Two programs rich in tradition!!! Didn't you guys just lose a pretty good kid?

Hopefully we see this guy rally up again... I'm looking to hit 1.13
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tupaitrader
a year ago
hoho nice
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The outlook remains the same - still waiting for another move higher. It appears we may soon embark upon the 'c' wave of an A-B-C upward flat correction. This may carry prices into the 1.1250-1.1350 range. Sentiment is near -1.35 which means 57% of retail traders are currently short.

snapshot
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ChatchaiVong JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
thank so much
Reply
Traders have been selling this recent rise SSI is now -1.7

Next level of resistance is 1.1350 area

snapshot
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ChatchaiVong JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
thank so much.
Reply
ChatchaiVong ChatchaiVong
a year ago
please , show chart D1 after wave c complete
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