JWagnerFXTrader

Placing the finishing touches on a bounce - 1.15 key level

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
4608 33 53
The sell off from this morning has popped outside of the purple channel. Therefore, it appears to be a smaller degree wave 'x' and we are working on a wave 'y' higher. Based on wave relationships, this places a potential reaction zone in the 1.14-1.15 area.

This runs a similar pattern to the GBPUSD             we wrote about last week.

Traders can place their risk above the Aug 24 high while targeting new lows below 1.08.

There is an alternate view that suggests we are in a larger degree (X) wave that likely digs deeper. A move above 1.15 will enhance this count.

Sentiment is running with net sellers going into the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Be mindful of your trade size as volatility is likely to pick up.

Good luck!
Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Nice bullish divergence in rsi.
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
a year ago
I am long also based upon the following idea (no EW)
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Here is the complete idea, good to have the same view with you.
Long euro, at least for double top
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Nice work Lighthouse. Though I do believe the pair runs a little higher...I'm not looking to trade it to the long side.

Wave 3's can be powerful and I don't want get caught long when i'm anticipating a wave 3 lower.

BTW, where exactly are you seeing the bullish rsi divergence? Which time frame?
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Yahia.Awes JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
In your own chart starting from 9 sept.
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Your (B) to X
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
a year ago
This RSI wedge broke out because of the divergence and in price the same thing happend. Then it retraced and there is where I longed.
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tupaitrader
a year ago
great idea...thanks!!
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO tupaitrader
a year ago
Thank you Tupai - best of luck!
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tupaitrader JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
thanks!!!you' re my inspiration master....hoho....
neway...this is my wave count...i dont know correct or not...but seem like goes the same...
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO tupaitrader
a year ago
Hi Tupai - so long as I'm inspiring good meaningful things! I do appreciate the compliment.

I think you are off to a great start. There are some little details that you'll train your eye to see as you keep working at it. Let me throw a couple of pointers at you...

1) the five (v) waves make up the larger blue wave '1'...therefore place the '1' on top (physically higher on the chart) of the (v) so that way it shows that it represents the ending point for both those waves
2) likewise, at the end of 'c' that also represents where blue wave 2 ends

Now, wait for Elliott's rules. If the blue waves only make up 3 waves higher, then its not an impulse...it will be corrective (labeled a-b-c)

Keep asking the questions.
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MirkoMan
a year ago
How do you have 5 waves down with no divergence?
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO MirkoMan
a year ago
I love your question MirkoMan! That shows me you are really thinking about the EW count and that you are trying to justify it in your own mind rather than taking it at my word. Certainly use my counts as spring boards of thought.

Now, specifically to your question, divergence in the 5th wave is a characteristic of the wave, but not a rule. It is a symptom to alert you that a 5th wave could be upon us...but that symptom doesn't have to be present for the wave to be a 5th wave.

Think of it like being sick. When you don't feel good, you go to the doctor and the doc asks you several questions to determine what the symptoms are to then make a diagnosis. There may be several symptoms he/she is looking for:
-stuffy nose
-head ache
-coughing
-sore throat
-etc

Could one person have the flu and show only 2 of the symptoms? Sure. Could another person have the flu and show the other symptoms but not the same 2 symptoms as the first person? Sure. That is the same scenario when dealing with the characteristics of waves.

5th wave divergence is one thing we look for as "chart doctors".

Other items (among other things) I look for are wave relationships and wave measurements. I've shared a smaller time frame chart (1 hr) to illustrate how some wave relationships have lined up pretty well giving me confidence as a doctor of the 5 wave move. (See the tan notes associated with the red dotted horizontal lines.) If those wave relationships didn't exist, I would then lean heavier on alternate counts.

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Does this answer your question?
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FutureMeDead JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
I agree with JWag here. Additionally, divergence is less likely to be present in small degree wave counts. All in all, sometimes we are not afforded clarity.
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ChatchaiVong
a year ago
thank so much..
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO ChatchaiVong
a year ago
Your welcome Chatchai - best of luck and happy trading!
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harmony12345
a year ago
I do not think so. EURUSD is heading down as S&P is going up. We had to tag the 1.1380 area in EURUSD(which we came close enough). Now since Monday, we are distributing preparing for a big drop to 1.0710. They won't leave a leg untested. The reason we popped is to allow us to drop without any levels to hold us up. 1.1069 is coming up. small bounce there, then we head to 1.0710. Mark my words.
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO harmony12345
a year ago
Hello Harmony - your words are marked friend (the beauty of trading view...they mark your words as you publish)! What tools are you using in your analysis to arrive at the mentioned levels? By the way, do you have a chart to illustrate your levels as well? I appreciate the comment. Thank you!
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ChatchaiVong
a year ago
now can sell? or wait
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO ChatchaiVong
a year ago
Good question Chatchai

There are a couple of ways to approach.

1) If you sell now, where do you place your stop? Ideally above the Aug 2015 high, but that is 300 pips away. Therefore, you end up with an arbritray zone which isn't good.
2) Wait for support levels to break - this indicates a greater likelihood that a top is in especially if the turn occurs in a marked zone. This could be trend line support or horizontal support. That way, if the support never breaks, you are kept out of a losing trade.

Therefore, the recommended approach is to wait for support levels to break then trade. Horizontal levels could be 1.1375 or 1.1290. Or, draw trend lines and use them. That way, you can place your stop loss above the recent swing high.
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ChatchaiVong JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
ok, i wait for test support levels to break then trade. Horizontal levels , thank so much..
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
We are at a support level here. I would 'think' it would hold for a Friday afternoon.

If we trade below current levels on the London open Monday, it may signal the top is in and the wave 3 lower is in play. So this is illustrating my previous comment (point #2) above. This would be about 100 pip risk for a target towards 1.1070 then 1.08 (300 or 500 pips of reward).

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TomaszIgnasiak
a year ago
Great call. Looks like correction is finished. What is your big picture view ? Serious decline just starting ?
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO TomaszIgnasiak
a year ago
Hi Tomas - I'm looking for at least another 5 wave decline to 1.08. It can run lower, it may not make it there. The market just completed 5 waves down and 3 waves up and therefore, I'm looking for at least 1 more 5 wave decline lower. Time will tell how aggressive it moves.

Keep in mind, a probabilistic view is not a certain view. We don't know for sure if this will happen...the probabilities appear shifted in that direction.
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AndrewHook JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
"a probabilistic view is not a certain view" Mark my words ;-)
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Cainara
a year ago
The trend on the weekly and monthly chart for this currency pair is high. So let's take advantage of an opportunity to enter into a low as possible and thus achieve higher levels of TPs.

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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Cainara
a year ago
Hi Cainara - I appreciate your input. Best of luck!

BTW - it looks like you have the Great Wall in the background of your picture. What part of the wall were you at?
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Cainara JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
My wife and I were in a part of the wall next to Beijing. Look my work in Brazil www.tourchapada.com. You are my guest.
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Cainara
a year ago
Fantastic work in Brazil! The Great Wall is an incredible work as well. Thank you for sharing.
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DavidRoberts
a year ago
Hi Jeremy.....just back from Holidays! Do you think this is to late to get into now or that there is still enough wave 3 potential there? Perhaps if it breaks below 1.1080 ish?
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO DavidRoberts
a year ago
Hi David - welcome back! You should be getting a fresh look at the charts after having some time away.

So long as resistance levels hold, we can continue to look lower. Prices may retrace to 1.12 but would need to stay below 1.1270 to keep the 3rd wave interpretation as the preferred view. A wave 3 should ultimately break 1.08 and pressure 1.04.

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ChatchaiVong JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
please , update EU

thank so much
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rick.alter.35 JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
hey jwag ... same wave count as you..think we're in a triangle now for your purple circle wave 4??
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