The main EW count shown on the chart above suggests we are grinding higher in a wave (ii). This should be a partial retracement that likely terminates below 1.5650. The sweet spot of a reversal is in the 1.5500 area.
If prices are successful in pushing below Sept 4, 2015 low of 1.5160, then the probability elevates that we are in a wave 3 and prices may move towards 1.37.
Elliott Wave Count – wave (ii) of circle ‘iii’ of (3) – this is at a very portion of the wave sequence. The alternative view is that the June 18 high to the Sept 4 low is a larger corrective wave. This would retest highs of 1.6000 so the behavior near 1.55-1.56 sets the tone.
Wave Measurements - the Aug 25 to Sept 4 downtrend carves as a clean 5 waves (not shown). Look for a 50-61% retracement in wave (ii).
SSI – Currently sitting at +2.17 as the majority of traders are currently long.
OBV – The OBV is hard on its lows as downside has been beating the upside .
Additionally, don't forget that 1.5650 represents where wave (ii) would be equal in length to red circle 'ii'. Since blue (ii) is of smaller degree of trend, I would want to see any moves above 1.5650 to be brief and quickly retraced to keep this wave count alive.
Be mindful of the volatility to pick up this afternoon due to the FOMC press conference.