- setup. The big pictur is unlikely to change any time soon.
BUT there are a few questions here:
- 1,0750 is a 17 years (!!!) level, which acted well in the past many times.
- Price dropped for 10 months (!) without any correction, and reached a 12 years low!
- Price got very far away from equilibrium levels (deep below Kumo and Kijun Sen) during last 10 months
The big question here is if:
A) 1,0700 - 1,0750 holds this time again?
B) Can we see a similar consolidation and pull back pattern like the one in 1997-1998?
C) We all understand the Euro is and will stay , but should the USD be so bullish? I mean since I know my mind USA has been accumulating C/A deficit, US debt has been increasing + FED after all printed 4000 bn USD in last 6 years. We hear talking heads saying there is USD shortage on the market...hmmm, is there really?
Not much to add, you can see how strong this trend was/is, and we see the same issues here:
- Weekly candles could not even make a Kijun Sen retest in this downtrend! Actually they never closed above Tenkan Sen (9 weeks avg )
- Price is like a falling knife and got very far away from Kumo and Kijun Sen
This is just an observation. No indication to go against the trend. I have to admit I thought it was oversold at 1,19 and also at 1,15, which means regardless my entry between 1,35-1,37 was pretty good, and I made some money, I got out too early and missed all this move from 1,19 down to 1,0750. But maybe it is time to think again about what is priced into this pair, and if the pricing needs some adjustment by the market sometimes in the close future.
It may happen that it collapses with the same pace down to 1,00, but it has some chance that we finally see some consolidation, pull back, and these one way moves we got used to will change and will materialise in more .
Well, yes, the trend is not a question. That's why I wrote it is hard to immagine a change in the big picture. However the question is if a pull back or consolidation is due or not? I have never seen this kind of move neither in USD Indx nor in EURUSD, when not even a minor correction happened. 10 month in a row... that puts some question marks. Certanly, it will remain a sell on tops, but I don't think it is a good risk reward for those who enter eurusd shorts here.