EURUSD likely in a daily triangle

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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Those who follow me from before I was posting on Tradingview already know for a long time my fundamental view regarding both Euro zone and FED . It took a while but both ECB and FED realized that what they are doing didn't achieve much and therefore resulted in a major correction on daily time frame. Forex is relative and that's how we should look at it when it comes to fundamentals. As a technical trader I like to look for what fundamentals might trigger the next major technical move. It doesn't really matter whether the move and the data from fundamentals make sense at first because again Forex is relative.

For EURUSD I expect the 'Brexit' referendum to be the next signal (if there won't be any crisis before that). This is not a forecast or projection but it all starts with scenario analysis for me. In June we have that referendum and with the market being unsure what to make of the FED and its rate policy (hike or not or maybe even cut) and the ECB running out of tools, this sideways price action might continue a few more months. If we see a 'No-vote' in UK I expect the EURUSD to complete this structure on the daily time frame and therefore a triangle formation. Once that formation is completed we most likely see a continuation of the major trend, which is bearish .

In terms of trading I will be looking whether this triangle formation will be correct by means of bearish break and move towards 1.11 and 1.08. I will therefore be looking for a bearish break, smaller impulses and consolidations on lower time frames for at least a 3 wave move lower.

I will therefore update this post more often when I see that becoming valid. If however EURUSD decides to move higher again I have to adjust to my other scenario which I posted before. Which is a W-X-Y complex corrective combination to be in progress.


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Comment: For now I don't see an impulse of lesser degree. I've shown what 2 scenario's (by means of the arrows) I'll be looking for before I want to trade a break out. For now it is still reasonable to assume that EURUSD might extend higher first o I keep my options open.

updates will follow

Comment: I traded the bullish break yesterday towards the previous high and will now be focused again on a possible bearish break.
Updates will follow but it looks good so far for the bearish break.
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