Also a head and shoulder pattern is on its way to break the inclined neck line but not yet.
Now coming to the fundamentals. Today according to a Bloomberg report the oldest Italian Bank Monte dei Paschi Siena has lost 9% when the markets opened on Monday, all this just before the stress test scheduled by the end of the month. This allows us to think that if Italy will be the next fall in europe it can cause a domino effect in the eurozone making investors loose confidence and sell the euro !!!
Another big event as the FED rate will also affect the pair and a possible hike could make all this happen to target the pair to 1.04 again as last summer.
Anyhow this is a personal interpretation of the facts.
I will be looking forward to hear alternative scenarios :)