Alexander_Nikitin

Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XII.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Hey, traders. I’m back and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. I’ll talk about HSFSP and SFSP types.
First, I will remind you average success rate of bat pattern . One has this rate if he trades EVERY bat he can find. As usual, three pairs for illustration:
On eurusd             it is 53,52%, gbpusd             – 52,39%, audusd             – 51,53%.
Now, the types’ features
1) HSFSP:
Let’s decode the name. “HS” – XA is interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “F” – BC             is not straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement.
I’ve been testing HSFSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd             , gbpusd             and audusd             as examples):
Frequency:
On eurusd             I found 22, on gbpusd             – 16 and on audusd             – 22. Not very frequent type)
Success rate of HSFSP type:
On eurusd             it is 45,45%, on gbpusd             – 37,5%, on audusd             – 59,09%.
As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on audusd             and less than average success rate on eurusd             and on gbpusd             . Trading this type on audusd             and not trading it on eurusd             and on gbpusd             is a way to improve trading.
2) SFSP:
Let’s decode the name. “S” – XA is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “F” – BC             is not straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement.
I’ve been testing SFSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd             , gbpusd             and audusd             as examples):
Frequency:
On eurusd             I found 15, on gbpusd             – 17 and on audusd             – 8. Not very frequent type, either
Success rate of SFSP type:
On eurusd             it is 60,00%, on gbpusd             – 47,05%, on audusd             – 35,50%.
As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on eurusd             and less than average success rate on audusd             and on gbpusd             . Trading this type on eurusd             and not trading it on audusd             and on gbpusd             is a way to improve trading.
Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
This pattern was found with Pattern Search Software (c)
Watch the sample video here: https://youtu.be/kK6QfJuCGwg
Contact me in PM if you wish to get your copy
Best regards, Alexander Nikitin.
Fulltime professional trader and programmer.
Very systematic, great.
Reply
timwest PRO
a year ago
Thanks for the time you put into sharing your research: I think your results are similar to what I've seen here at TradingView (as a moderator looking for charts to "suggest") with the success rate averaging around the 40%-50% level for all markets. The key with all technical methods is knowing "how much" to trade and "how wide" to place your stops. The hit rate is just one factor of three key factors. The fourth factor is "Volume of trades" generated. If you have a low number of trades, then it is harder to get the expected return. The additional factors that go into great results come from adding to positions as a trade works and cutting back trades that don't work, thereby increasing the expected return from trading the system. Thanks again for your research.
+2 Reply
Your 'frequency' for the three pairs, over the 4-year time periods, was only for patterns on 240min time frame? I could assume but want to check for clarity. (Been studying hard all your methods).
Reply
Alexander_Nikitin TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
No, mate. The timeframe was 5 min.
Reply
Alexander_Nikitin TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
by the way, my methods became much simplier. it took me hard work to find out what is indeed important. there's lots of complete rubbish in my earlier posts)). haha.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Alexander_Nikitin
a year ago
A great journey, trading...one of mostly, self discovery, of strengths and weaknesses, and our own edge and system.
Reply
Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
a year ago
That's the journey. I'm now wondering which are the best of your posts to focus on (not sure which of the earlier 'rubbish' ones to avoid).
Reply
Alexander_Nikitin TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
there's no such thing as perfection. it's like balancing on the rope. you can never balance without motion. moving left and then moving right you are crossing the "zero" line. making a mistake is one of these two movements. newbies move too much on either side until they fall. experienced become aware of being moving in one direction and immediatly bigin to move in opposite direction, toward "zero" line. but in fact, "zero" line doesn't exist. in fact it is only a potential "zero" line. we can only cross it hither and thither. experienced being good self-observers can recognize they are moving away from "zero" line very quickly. so making a mistake is only an indication where the "zero" line is. my last ten ideas are more empowered with that kind of recognition then 10 before. and those ten are more empowered with that recognition than those before them and so on. now i think that my earlier ideas that worked well were complete luck. but what is luck? isn't it the result of hard work? self-observation, cocentration is the key. you can certainly examine my ideas and find some common feature of those that worked well. that will empower you with analysis skills. or you can just do a backtesting and you will also get skilled in analysis. or you can read some books and (if you believe in what you've read) also get skilled in analysis. but analysis will never show you you are moving wrong way. only self-observation can.
+1 Reply
Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
a year ago
That's platinum!! I so cherish your thoughts and reflections. Really man!! I'm also very delighted that you don't seem to be in any popularity contests, here on Tradingview or elsewhere. I think that's the mark of something special - at least very different. I've been looking closely at your style, your attention to detail, your sifting through the chaos (some created by others). You speak your truths as you have found them - and it's for those who can appreciate to share in them. Apols - if you come to feel I'm massaging your ego by these seeming compliments - I have no need to do any of that in the slightest. I just speak it as I find it. Ifwhen I say thanks - I mean that I truly appreciate your generosity. That motivates me to be equally or more generous, when I become successful (in any sphere of life).
+2 Reply
Alexander_Nikitin TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
what is so precious about the stuff is not my words or wisdom. it's your readiness to percieve these words. i don't think my words describe something nobody knew before me. i'd rather say they describe something that is liying on the surface, that is seen to everybody. of course i put some sense in the words i say, but are the listeners able to percieve that sense? it like feeling. I can describe my feelings but it doesn't mean that the listener will feel the same listening to the description. the best he can do is to assosiate the description with some experience he already has, but to understand what i described he has to feel exactly what i felt. if the listener has nothing inside to assosiate my words with he would think i'm talking nonsence. if he has some contradictory experience he would argue me. if he has some similar experience he would agree. but if he has the exact experience my words are no longer needed. so the perception of my words depends on that kind of experience the listener has. having that kind of expirience i call readiness)
+1 Reply
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