I think EURUSD moves down this week.
We seems to have broken the uptrend and could be starting a move lower.
The EUR narrative continues to worsen with EUR data coming in worse, the narrative keeping EURUSD higher right now is a hawkish ECB and a dovish fed. While i think this still makes sense also think as data continues to come in soft for the EUR we will likely see the market test moves lower in EUR yields expecting that the ECB may not hold up on its hawkish stance.
I also think that HICP data this week will surprise to the downside which should help the idea.
Correlations are pointing lower, the rate differentials are lower, copper is moving lower, there is some risk off sentiment currently as well.
We also have EoM this week which is usually good for the USD.
Sentiment and positioning are neutral.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
We seems to have broken the uptrend and could be starting a move lower.
The EUR narrative continues to worsen with EUR data coming in worse, the narrative keeping EURUSD higher right now is a hawkish ECB and a dovish fed. While i think this still makes sense also think as data continues to come in soft for the EUR we will likely see the market test moves lower in EUR yields expecting that the ECB may not hold up on its hawkish stance.
I also think that HICP data this week will surprise to the downside which should help the idea.
Correlations are pointing lower, the rate differentials are lower, copper is moving lower, there is some risk off sentiment currently as well.
We also have EoM this week which is usually good for the USD.
Sentiment and positioning are neutral.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!