Kumowizard
Short

pros and contras before FED

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
958 20 15
Weekly:
- Ichimoku still has longer term bearish bias, but due to correction from tripple bottom, the momentum is gone again, and Price popped up to change picture rather neutral.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bullish , but again we have to be cautious with haDelta around zero!
- First supp/res reached at Tenkan Sen = 1,10+. Next and even stronger key level is the 1,11-1,12 area, which is also supported be long term bearish trendline
- EWO             is still bearish . Long term picture will only change if Price closes above at least Kijun and EWO             changes to green!

Summary: Weekly is still in a wide sideaway range, with neutral-like Ichimoku and short term bullish bias, however price reached some key supp/res.

Daily:
- As I pointed out several times, the market was expecting way too much from the ECB based on multi weeks BS-ing from the biggest taling head ever called Mario Draghi. The serious and dumb overpositionning caused extreme short squeeze, and let me say this was a normal reaction.
- Due to multi wave spikes in price, Ichimoku picture turned neutral: Thick Kumo shades Price ahead, Chikou Span hit past candles, Tenkan and Kijun closed in to almostv make a weak bullish cross.
- However Price reached a support/resistance level marked by 1,1030-1,1090 zone! This should block further gains, especially ahead of FED rate decision, which I am almost sure will bring the long waited hike!
- Heikin-Ashi candles are bullish , but after a print at extreme high haDelta already signals negative divergence!
- Price will likely test 1,08 (-) area before FED again.

Summary: If you followed me and my trade idea, this counter trend long worked extremely quick and extremely well. But I think until next week we are pretty much done. It is time to book profits and stay neutral... or maybe sell some to 1,08 +/- tgt             .

FED I think WILL hike! They don't have any other choice. The question is how much will they do and how will they communicate. But it is too early to bet on this! You have to cross the bridge when you get there. Yes, it is possible that after FED EURUSD             will spike again and will go to 1,13. That is also possible that next year we reach 1,20+... why not? But can you play these scenarios now? Of course you can not. You can play this setup, when there is a setup!

* * *

I have to share some other info here with you: I've been working on my own for the last 4 years! I was not employed by anybody, and I really enjoyed freedom and independence (self-dependence :-) ).
However lately I had an inquiry for a really challenging and interesting position from a company, in which I think I only have an upside. After 5 months of negotiations I accepted the job from 1st/December. This means I will have a lot of business development tasks and duties as a chief economist, so from 2016 probably I won't be as active here on Tradingview as before. But I will still publish major ideas. So you can still keep on following me, and gove feedbacks, which I really appreciate!
I also suggest you to follow me on Twitter, where I will likely post a bit more.
Also if anytime you have any requests, questions, or ideas, you can always reach me via Twitter @Kumowizard or e-mail me to kumowizard@gmail.com..
Kumowizard,
Thank you for your sizable contribution to this community. I have been following your commentary and insight for awhile now and have enjoyed and learned from your point of view. Your 'day' job is lucky to have you. Congratulations. Looking forward to your commentary in the future, it will be missed here.

Trade well.
Respectfully,
ShirokiHeishi
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Hi Kumo, just wanna say thx for all your posts and analysis, u got me interested in Ichimoku and I have learnt to incorporate it into my own trading from your charts. U will be missed, thx for everything and good luck with your new job.
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Thanks a lot. As I said I will not fully disappear :-)... especially that even my new position will be a bit related to financial markets. I just mean probably the activity will be less. I wanted you all to kow it, not to believe that I got hammered by market or took an exit, just because I'll have fewer posts :-)
For me this tradingview thing is extremely important. You see I never channelled this activity towards a pre-payed subscription business. It is a hobby for me to help people if possible.
And honestly I also had one more selfish reason behind these posts: I wanted to show the TRUTH to some IDIOT FCKHEADS (if they ever read this they will know who I am and who I think of) who has been questionning me and my concept, and my 10 years+ real success. I wanted to show them this stuff together with a solid risk- and money management really works and makes a lot of money! But of course those idiots will remain same envious, jelous, spreading sht rumours :-D
Never mind. You guys who have been learning, and trying and making lot of efforts to become consistent and disciplined traders and follow me or some others for this reason, you can all succeed! You will have good times and hard times. I still have mine too of course. But if you walk the way of consistent trendfollowing, you will grow and you will reach awsome things! Which I hope later you will use to help other people, not just novice traders, but also the poor, who will never have the chance becoming a trader like you, even though they might be as good as us.

Keep in touch!
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Congrats on your new challenge! Your insightful (and often amusing snarky :-) commentary will be sorely missed. Will follow on Twitter.
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thank you!
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Guys! I highly recommend you to watch a fascinating movie (film): "I am" (2010)
It will help you think different and detach your thinking from too heavy speculation. Then you will value your money made in a different way. Also you will learn how to help others with your success. Believe me, you see making money is hard job, but not impossible. What makes it beautiful is that how you use the money and knowledge to help others too! Making millions of dollars won't make you happier. Feeling "Excitement" doesn't equal to feeling "Happines".
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Hey is this the film you recommend?? Always like a recommendation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_(2010_American_documentary_film)
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RJHumphries PRO RJHumphries
Must be the right one!! Thanks for that Kumowizard a really powerful film
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Good report ... a question but if the Fed will raise rates as is very likely, does not believe that the euro dollar may reach new lows? thank you
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SolidSnake jukilo2000
Fed WILL raise it because they have to do some kind of movement after so much hawkish talk, the question is not, will or will it not happen? the question is How strong will this be? a raise <50bp is already priced into the market although there will be some initial euphoric movement, anything >50bp would be very strong and could drive the EURUSD to parity pretty quickly as new short positions will come in. One scenario I can see is that many positions are already into the market short of the Euro so if the FED disappoints like ECB did... those positions will get unwinded and you know in Forex you cant just cash out, when you close your position what you do is buy back the other currency (if you are short) so that means institutions buying back Euros = less euros available in the market = increase of Euro price. which could send the euro back to the 1,13 levels very quickly and from there... we shall see :)
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