Kumowizard
Short

Serious multi time frame deterioration - Is Bear market coming?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
723 7 14
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen! Dear perma Bulls and Zerohedge fan unpatient Bears! I have some news: A bear market to hit in 2016 has a quickly increasing chance!

Monthly:

Major long term market tops take long time to build. And even when market gets first hits, it tries to recover too early. Why? Simply because of human nature, and feer/greed psichology! Look at the first ellipse on the Monthly chart: there is the most important message -> Whenever the monthly Price closes back below Monthly Kijun Sen (26 months average ) the BULL MARKET IS OVER! But also as you see it doesn't mean an immediate total collapse. First market goes into a deep correction from the major long term makret top, which had taken 5-8 months to form before! Then feer and greed buys the market again, that lasted for a few months in 2008. But again, without Price breaking back above Monthly Kijun Sen, Bulls can not win!

What else do we see on monthly now as most important message?
- Heikin-Ashi has very serious warning signal for a top and a possible downturn from recent levels! Since the august break and lows, Price retested the previous long term bullish trendline. But this month it looks like the candle can become one with an inside body (compared to previous candle) and with a lower high! We still have time until year end, but as you will see on the lower time frames, this deterioration to stay has high probability!. Naturally same time haDelta/SMA3 also gives a warning signal for loss in previous sharp bullish momentum!
- Kijun Sen is cathcing up quickly. As I Showed u in my last monthly chart, every month one candle 26 months ago falls out. IMPORTANT NOTE! For some reason Tradingview's system I think doesn't calculate properly the current monthly Kijun Sen. It should be higher at 1933 now! (in my other systems it is appr. there). Anyway, within the next 2-3 months it will automatically move up to minimum 1950 and 1966 regardless any price actions! (so either price stays here, drops or increases). This means the bearish trigger line is coming closer!

Weekly:
- Neutral Ichimoku setup.
- Neutral Heikin-Ashi, with increasing bearish bias shown by haDelta!
- Look how close the last supports are!!! Kumo and Kijun at 1984. And horizontal around 1922, which is already below of current Monthly Kijun Sen (1933)!!!

Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, with increasing bearish bias as Price attacks Kijun from up.
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish , EWO slightly below zero!
- Price may dip into the Kumo. In this case Bulls have to make all their best to keep it above 1990 at least for this year! Or if they really believe in their power, they will defend it even above 2035 and will try to keep it float in 2030-2090 range.

Grand total:
The picture is not yet that bad, but not so rosy either! We have serious long term warning signals! Long SPX             positions has very limited upside from here compared to the mounting risks goiing into 2016!
Keep your eyes open, and pin these charts to your desktop!!!


LastBattle
a year ago
Poor Janet Yellen, the market is pricing to sell off upon her opening her mouth on 14/15th December ;)
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Kumowizard PRO LastBattle
a year ago
Janet Yellen proved to be far the best FED Chair so far compared to Greenspan and Bernanke. Maybe she has been (they have been) a bit behind the curve, and now they will be a bit ahead of the curve and troubles that will come, but still she is very good in my opinion. How she will act in a stress environment that is another question.
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moashiman
a year ago
Exciting weeks to come! This is in line with what I think as well.
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Kumowizard PRO moashiman
a year ago
then your position has to be in line with your thinking too. Later we only need the market to get familiar with this perception, and get in line with our view too :-D
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moashiman Kumowizard
a year ago
Haha that's very true! :p
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2use
a year ago
best deterioration is that many blue chips are not at their top prices, but markets are. Seems that someone already took money off the table on the most risky assets
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gLloWaves
a year ago
Yes! The Weekly Wavetrend is getting ready to turn negative and the daily already is. But there are some bullish divergences, but look how thin the cloud gets in February/March.
snapshot
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