long1996

EU: Weekly Outlook - Recap, Technical, Fundamental

Long
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Verdict: Bullish for this week. Bearish for the month.
Technical: Short-term Bullish. Long-term Bearish. Expect price to retrace upwards as USD retrace downwards.
Fundamental: Bearish. Need to pay more attention to news releases

Recap: On the previous week, the price has closed above the support 1.20700 after it was rejected off it. On Monday, the price continued its bearish movement and close just above the 1.20700 support and its low. On Tuesday, the price managed to breakthrough the support and plummet towards the next minor support at 1.20000. On Wednesday, the price tries to pull back upwards but failed to do so as it was rejected and continues to fall downward toward the next support t 1.19500. However it failed to break below and the price stalled there. On Thursday, the price tries another pullback as the price was stalled on the previous day. However, it did not have enough buying power to push upwards towards the resistance at 1.20700. Consequently, the price continues its bearish movement once more on Friday as it tried to move lower. Despite the strong bearish move, the support at 1.19500 once again held as it printed a long lower shadow indicates that the price has tried to move lower but was held off by the buying pressure.

Technical: On Friday, a candlestick with long lower shadow is printed. This means that the support has provided significant amount of cushion as the price managed to bounced back after being pushed through. With the price closing above the support at 1.19500, the price could potentially move upwards to retest the upper resistance at 1.20700 & 1.22000. On the downside, if the price failed to retrace upwards and continues it bearish move, it will move downwards to target the support at 1.18500 & 1.17500.

Fundamental: In the upcoming week, there's not much news coming from the Eurozone, thus it is expected that the weaknesses would continue in the future unless there is more positive news that could boost the economy outlook of the Eurozone. Other than that, the USD strength is also unlikely to give away anytime soon as a series of positive news releases has continue to paint an favorable economy outlook for the US. The Euro would continue to be under pressure by the US dollar in the medium & short term as long as the Euro has not shown any reversal signal on a major support.
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