I'll keep the back story short & sweet because this isn't necessarily a trade that'd sit well with me, but I'm long for a more near term target. I'm sure if you've been long - it's been slow & painful lol. I've lost $ on a trade like this & this is why it doesn't sit well to me, but could be a hella profitable trade. To get rid of the extra noise from the MA's I use, the 3 that are there are the most important for a longer term perspective. You can go all the way back to 2012 when $FB IPO'd, & the only time the 180 WMA (blue) fell below the 3 year WMA (black) - the black WMA didn't exist. If it did, any ticker would be either in bear market, or real REAL choppy, sketchy price action. Seeing as long term weighted moving averages aren't susceptible to gaps & range contraction during consolidation phases, by the time you see a real change in slope is when you should expect to see volatility. I'm as bearish if not more than others about certain aspects in the market, but I'd highly recommend NOT shorting until there's a clear signal that those 'slow & steady' profits won't be wiped out by a move that's totally unexpected. I'll leave a pic of what pattern looked like in 2012 in comparison, but on a last note - I see it enough to say it's a common, & a little bigger than what an 'impulse' move would be if / when the 180 WMA starts to crossover into bear territory. Overall, it's bearish. But in the short run - it's gonna make a move to deter the crossover before it turns into a continuation or a last resort type of move. Either way - first time since 2012? if not ever? Pretty insane.
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Although the pattern is familiar (almost always, a strong DO NOT BUY pattern for me) I knew it looked familiar, just the continuous range contraction to the downside - it's unsustainable. Not even unsustainable, just, dangerous. If you pull a rubber band back far enough, quick enough, it snaps obviously by force. If you pull it back far enough, after time, it snaps by the deterioration, not the force applied. I knew the pattern looked familiar - not only the pattern but the fact that hourly chart showed bear market - daily / 4 hour chart still showed balance. Red bar pattern in this next pic is $NFLX starting from their last earnings report. Just wanted to justify myself for this because I felt a little crazy 2 hours ago lmao
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Don't care too much at all for the rest of FAANG or the NASDAQ entirely but, I can definitely see the mean reversion coming for a downfall in tech while $FB recovers. Something like $NFLX did two weeks ago
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If you're bullish on $FB might wana check out $MCHP too while you're @ it
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I'm bearish on like, the whole market.... But this still looks so nice to me lol
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STILL BULLISH ZUCK HANG IN THERE LMAO
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You know even now lol, I'm still pretty bullish on $FB overall, & for the long haul. But that being said, if it was on more of a discount than it is now - I wouldn't jump @ & get long on a hunch right before earnings. This is a chart pattern of $FBHS that reminded me of $FB the second I saw it. My posts of $FB have probably been the most spot on out of them all so that being said - Ima stop out & remain neutral. As bearish as I am on just about the entire tech sector - I'd still love to see $FB pull off a beat & actually give bulls something to hold onto but, wishful thinking doesn't make a market.
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed: stop reached