timwest
Short

Facebook FB looks good in about 6 years

NASDAQ:FB   FACEBOOK INC
1077 4 19
IF sales double every 2 years, margins stay the same at 20% and nothing else changes.

Of course, this assumes that you own the whole company outright.

Meanwhile you can buy AAPL-1.50% and earn roughly that 16% return each and every year so that in 6 years you will have your entire investment returned (6 years at 16% = 96% return on your capital). It's the tale of two valuations and I think investors are challenging the "growth at any price" concept and looking at all of the stocks that are trading a cheap valuations here.

Long term investors don't mind volatility - the best stocks in the world have 30%-50% corrections many times along the way to going up 40-fold to 100-fold. (Think NKE-3.74% , MSFT-2.59% , AAPL-1.50% , MKC)

My proprietary "RgMov" indicator is alerting me that people are selling here because the RgMov line peaked at the end of 2015 ahead of the top in the stock which peaked in early February. Also, RgMov has fallen to a multi-month low and is in a downtrend. Also, there are many days where the price range expanded to the downside along with rising volume , which is what you see when investors are selling. I will change my mind when my RgMov indicator is hitting multi-month highs. That's how you follow the trend and this RgMov indicator "leads" price action, giving us an inside look into accumulation and distribution.

Keep a close eye on FB-2.87% because it looks like a safe place to enter a short position here with a stop over $115 and downside potential to $80-$70 this year.

Tim

105.32 last FB-2.87% 3:16PM EST 3/7/2016
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Absolutely agreed. Had a nice ride up from the 40's and now looks way overvalued. Volume analysis tells us a very interesting story. Time to move on to greener pastures, or short this thing down.
Dude you are a beast.
good day
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GalShafat PRO
9 months ago
RgMov is your own private indicator ?
+1 Reply
2use
9 months ago
Have to add that i've been grasping many concepts and new things over 2 years now. I am happy to at least understand that my gut already coincides with your detailed analysis - hence i completely disregard FB at these valuations and do have Apple in my portfolio. so +1 from on this
Reply
GalShafat PRO
9 months ago
Sold half of my position i hold since price was 25
rest of trade is risk free + profits
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