timwest
Long

Facebook FB Daily Time At Price Trend Analysis and Forecast

NASDAQ:FB   FACEBOOK INC
977 17 6
Facebook             is detaching from a 7-day mode with today's action, marking today as day 1. The chart shows how the trends unfolded into the decline two weeks ago and how FB             held an important 17-day mode of support from the rally phase back in Jan-March.

It is interesting to note how a stock distributes and how it accumulates and how it shows on the graph. In this case, FB             failed to decline by the appropriate amount into the low recently, which means that there were ample buyers at that level standing ready to purchase shares and there were NOT enough sellers to drive it to that level. The market will always go to where the most orders will fill (from my observation of the markets over 31 years).

Keep in mind that 73-74 is also the equivalent level of SUPPLY for Facebook             where there are so many sellers that were standing ready to unload that the price never made it there. So, don't expect a new high to be greeted by a blast off, but rather expect another correction from a new high, if we get there.

For now, look for 7 days of rally with today being day 1. The price target is for reference. The stop is under the mode where the 7 is labeled.
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Thanx! =) This does go in-line with my ideas on the further price development up to 68-70. One question to you regarding your experience and technique - how does it hold on with the earnings? meaning, doing technical trading and with your methods specifically, does it work with predicting the earnings report outcome? I have this question in my head now since many basically see Facebook going to 68-70 zone, and we have earnings soon to serve as a possible catalyst. Thanx again in advance.
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You are welcome - the way I look at trading is that if you can afford to take a big loss on an earnings announcement as a worst case scenario, then why not keep the trade on if the technicals justify it. If, however, your trading policy is to get out of trades prior to earnings (a good risk-management technique, which means you may be limiting your upside in order to protect your downside), then by all means step aside. I have been pushing to have the earnings flags on the charts so it is easier to see in the past how technicals react around fundamentals so I hope you like the new feature that TradingView has programmed for us. So, I realize I didn't really answer your question, but I'm putting it back to you and your trading plan.
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2use timwest
Like!? i love it. It feels like "why wasn't it there before". Would not surprise me if Google finance would snatch the idea.

Indeed, i do have a risk management process of evaluation prior to earnings and deciding on hold/sell move. But what comes only with experience you have is an idea or a feeling if technical trading does provide a considerable amount of hinting on further price action after earnings. F.I. when you see all the technical indicators being on lower positions, the market rebounding and the stock pushing out of the down-trend, would this whole picture have a higher chance of giving an answer to the future price given the earnings are near? or is it still 50/50 for you no matter what you see on the chart

PS - not a single trade will be based on your reply, but if i can get advice or a discussion from an experienced trader, it would be stupid not to ask to share the knowledge.
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I'm glad you love the earnings highlight. As for the likelihood of FB going up or down based on the earnings coming out - I have no clue. My kids keep telling me they stop using FB and I keep seeing more ads on it when I check once a week, but I don't know anyone that owns the shares to see if they are thinking of selling or if they think they are cheap. So, it comes down to the mutual fund managers and whatever they decide to do based on whatever the analysts think - so I really have no idea. I like seeing where the market trades on the day of earnings and the following day, then use a midpoint and trade pullbacks to that level or sell rallies back up to the midpoint. This brings up another idea that they are working on - to collect our opinions about the future direction of everything we look at during the day and see if that adds any insight to possible future direction. I'd sure like to know what people think that "own" , "thinking of owning", or "want to short it" or "are short it" and see what everyone thinks.
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2use timwest
Just to add, including me, and Kland and/or other that see a reversed head and shoulders in recent trading, i read some articles and people are talking about going up from here to 70-80. But i am giving room for more optimism than there should be.
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Ok. I'd call the base formation a base formation instead of a "head and shoulders" because the trendline for the left shoulder isn't broken by the rally after the shoulder. It's a simple rule to follow to avoid seeing H&S everywhere. Also, the volume in the head is greater than the left shoulder, so that is also not typical for a proper H&S.

Overall though, maybe calls and puts are the best way to trade FB here. Own both sides and exit the profitable leg on a big move in one direction. If FB gaps up, sell the calls and hold onto the puts for a free trade (assuming the Call profit covers the cost of the put). Or sell the put on a gap-down and hold onto a free call option. Or simply exit both sides for a profit on a move after the earnings report.
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2use timwest
Ill note that! Good point about the volume. Recent days do prove the lack of it for the last shoulder. Thanx for the advice and waiting for your new ideas :)
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You seem to be reading my mind... First it was with TSLA and now FB ;) Yep, i'm looking at exiting around 68 region. May should be an interesting month for these mainstream stocks.
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2use justatrader
or markets in general
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Thanks to user "2use" for asking for an update on FB that encouraged me to update this chart.
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2use timwest
Already 100 views =) All eyes on FB tomorrow
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If I had taken the time to highlight the price action around the last earnings release, you would have seen that FB held at the mid-point of the range of the day of the last earnings release. It corresponded to an even better understanding of why the stock held at the level it did in the pullback this month.
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Tim, i cannot avoid the fact that the price action up to now for today surprisingly (maybe not to you) bounced off the exact border of your projection. I thank you again for sharing your ideas and hope that more and more people will follow your trades.
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Well now, it went out "of the trend box" and down to touch the low range of the gap. i am yet to fully understand your method so maybe you can clarify what is the possible outcome when it leaves the planned target time and price range?
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If FB fails to follow along the path of the Implied Accumulation, then the shares are not in strong hands, but rather the opposite - in weak hands. If FB can't rally, then it must fall and stop out all the longs that bought on the dip. Does that make sense to you?
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Note that FB held the "massive support" box labeled from 55.50-54 on the pullback last week. What you can't see here is that it failed to rally beyond where the earnings were released. See my other chart on FB.
snapshot
Facebook FB Daily Chart MIRRORS the 1987 Stock Market Crash
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The price just at the price target! Great analysis!
Why did you changed your mind in the next research of FB?
What was the main reason which made you to change your opinion (price direction)?
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