Crude Palm Oil (FCPO)-Simple Wave Count

Today is 11 October 2021. It's not even half of the month yet but price of FCPO has reached Monthly R2 (Traditional Pivot). That indicates the price is already overstretched. I believed the price should retrace. Furthermore, The bearish divergence does support the wave count that price already topped for wave 3 base on Elliott Wave count. Further confirmation is needed i.e. must break down the trendline and successfully retest it and continue the short-term downtrend.

FCPO is in a very bullish mode so I don't expect the price to retrace way below the Monthly R1 at 4785. Moreover, there is Weekly Pivot at 4811 to act as the first strong support that might be the catalyst for buyers to jump in the rally again.

The target for wave v is base on 1:1 ratio with wave i. It could go higher or lower than that.

Comment:

Comment:

Let's see what will happen.

Comment:

Price retraced for wave (B) more than 90% of wave (A) and that usually indicates a flat pattern. There is a possibility of a triangle is forming right now. If that is true, then it shows that a Double Tree pattern is forming.

Triangle is the last pattern in a Double or Triple Tree before the price resumes the trend. We need to wait and see how the price unfold when the market opens at 10.30am today.

Comment:

The bear wins!

Comment:

I've achieved my target for today. Base on the subwaves count, it's possible that the retracement will end at the area of either one of the two boxes. If the price continues to fall down, I strongly believed a massive amount of buyers will wait to jump in at the Monthly R1 level at 4785 area. Let's see.

Comment:

38.2% and 50% retracement levels are the typical retracement areas for wave 4 but let's see the candlestick pattern(s) at the 1H time frame.