FCT/BTC 4H Chart

Factom has exceeded even the bravest of expectations this month. I have previously mentioned that it was in a very oversold territory and that it was natural to retrace back up but boy, was that a run! Honestly, I am pretty down at the moment on this trade as I have gotten into a short at the 190k level previously looking at the TD 9 - 1D chart:

Glad I could short on Poloniex as it went to 330k there so I am at still at a loss at the moment but looking at this chart, I think FCT is going down and it will fly like a brick once that blue trendline support is broken. There is a bearish ascending wedge in play at the moment, TD 9 on the 4H chart at a sell signal, RSI and MACD pointing into no specific direction.

Looking for it to go back to 160k level at least or the 0.618 retracement.

Comment:

So FCT doesn't want to go down. Several scenarios to look at:

FCT goes bullish:

1. New bull run started for the year - no stopping down, however in BTC raising, money will flow from profit on FCT to BTC upward movement.
2. FCT gets listed on some big exchanges like Binance - it will pump hard.
3. It just ignores the resistance levels and goes all the way to 570k sats on previous year's high.
4. Stays above the support uptrend line and above the MAs.

FCT goes bearish:

1. We see a bearish divergence - good signal for shorters
2. Had only 1 healthy retracement so a move down can be expected.
3. The bearish wedge has become bigger and you know how these end.
4. The more violent uptrend, the more violent retracement usually.

My bet is on going down but you should acknowledge the bullish reasons and keep it organized:

Comment:

FCT forming a tweezer bottom on the 1D chart. Possible reversal. Look for confirmation if daily candle closes like this (shadow bottom matching the bottom of the previous candle).

Might be temporary upside, but strong resistance above. There is a double top on 1h/2h charts, so it could revert to test the lower line of the channel again soon.