New ATH's to come in the DAX after a mild additional correction?
I am using 'Fibonacci Pinball' (a method developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader) as a template for what is assumed to be an impulse wave off of the March lows.
Given the reaction to the 1.382 retracement level of the DAX, and the relatively minor sell-off we've seen, plus a seeming absence of a completed 4th wave in this structure, I am getting a bit bullish on the DAX if we hit the .764 or .618 retracement level and react strongly off of either of these levels. Given that the (A) wave of this potential 4th wave seems to be complete, a projection down to the .764 retracement (around 11160), seems the most likely spot for completing this potential 4th wave.
What I don't like about this count up, is the (lack of) sub-wave structure, especially in what's presumed to be a wave (iii). That does make me concerned of the potential for this entire rally simply being a high B wave in a very large ABC corrective wave structure. Again though, the reaction to the 1.382 level has been telling of a more bullish potential, and holding .764 or .618 retracement levels along with a good impulsive reversal likely signals we would see higher yet... (in the face of an unbelievable macro situation).
I'm posting this mainly as a journal to myself, but feel free to comment whatever you think.
Given the reaction to the 1.382 retracement level of the DAX, and the relatively minor sell-off we've seen, plus a seeming absence of a completed 4th wave in this structure, I am getting a bit bullish on the DAX if we hit the .764 or .618 retracement level and react strongly off of either of these levels. Given that the (A) wave of this potential 4th wave seems to be complete, a projection down to the .764 retracement (around 11160), seems the most likely spot for completing this potential 4th wave.
What I don't like about this count up, is the (lack of) sub-wave structure, especially in what's presumed to be a wave (iii). That does make me concerned of the potential for this entire rally simply being a high B wave in a very large ABC corrective wave structure. Again though, the reaction to the 1.382 level has been telling of a more bullish potential, and holding .764 or .618 retracement levels along with a good impulsive reversal likely signals we would see higher yet... (in the face of an unbelievable macro situation).
I'm posting this mainly as a journal to myself, but feel free to comment whatever you think.