FGEN - Free Falling

babychester Updated   
BATS:FGEN   FibroGen, Inc
Triple split screen analysis.

FGEN broke support at $16.30 (white) and $9.20 (yellow) levels.
Currently it's at 47 cents and in what I refer to as, "no man's land."
It's "no man's land" because there's no support below it to keep price from falling further.

Could price reverse? Sure it could.
If price does reverse, it would retest 95 cent first because currently that is the last support level. (Shown in the middle chart) I'm not saying price would shoot up to 95 cents immediately. It would stair step its way up to around 95 cents, and from there we would need to look at the charts further.

FGEN has been making lower highs and lower lows since July 2018.
It has been in a downtrend for 5 years. And to reverse a downtrend this large takes a lot of energy.
The last 8 months FGEN has fallen 97%.
If you look at this chart, you can visually see the last 4 candles potentially printed the pole of a bear flag, which is a parabolic move down.
If this is the pole of a bear flag, you would see an eventual rise in price, possibly retesting 95 cents or $2.72 (yellow lines.) And then a break back down continuing the bearish trend.

I'm not saying this bear flag will play out, I'm just throwing out a scenario. But if FGEN started to see a rise in price, 95 cents would be the next resistance level.

I use the 2 month chart like a cheat code. I know this is a very large time frame, but it's fairly accurate and there's less stress if you don't mind holding for a year or so.
The oscillators give clues on a general time to buy and sell. Yellow circles are the buy area and the white circles are the sell area.
The most recent buy and sell area yielded a 145% gain in 364 days.
The orange circles are there to remind me that both oscillators are below their white horizontal lines, and I'm waiting for the cross in the stochastic rsi.

This strategy is just a generalization. But it can give insights on what might be happening to price in the future, especially when momentum and strength in the oscillators are over sold in the large time frame.
In my original post over 3 months ago, FGEN was at 47 cents.
I stated then, that FGEN could potentially be forming a bear flag.

"If this is the pole of a bear flag, you would see an eventual rise in price, possibly retesting 95 cents or $2.72 (yellow lines.) And then a break back down continuing the bearish trend."

Matter of fact, FGEN did test 95 cents a month after my post, then blew through that level and tested $2.72 this month. (Middle Chart)

So what happens next?
-Today, FGEN closed the week of Jan 29, 2024, at $1.86.
-It definitely needs to find support at 95 cents. Fall below here and 54 cents would be its next test of support.
-And it needs to bust through the $2.72 level and find support there, if it wants to
test the next resistance level at $9.17.
-But if this truly is a bear flag then expect FGEN to fall through the 54 cents

I changed the right chart from a 2 month time frame to a weekly.
According to this chart, and not my opinion, the stochastic rsi is in very oversold territory.(Yellow Circle) When the stochastic rsi starts heading down, expect price to follow. This stochastic rsi drop in the weekly chart may drag FGEN down to the 54 cents level and below. Thus continuing the potential bear flag pattern.

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