Playing the Squid Game on South Korea
The South Korean show Squid Game dramatizes, in part, the extremely high household debt levels in that country. With household debt-to-GDP highest in the world, South Korean 30-somethings owe an average of 270% of their annual income.
Those are the kinds of household debt levels that could either plunge the country into recession as credit tightens or cause young Koreans to compete to the death on a dystopian game show for the entertainment of billionaire VIPs.
South Korea looks better in terms of government debt-to-GDP, which allows room for government to provide household debt relief or economic stimulus by growing its debt. That's partly why South Koreans elected a center-left proponent of universal basic income in last Sunday's presidential election.
South Korea's technology-heavy stock index trades at about half the price of other advanced economies on a free cash flow basis. Stocks have sold off sharply in recent months, setting up a possible short-term long-side mean-reversion play. By buying the index, you get large exposure to household names like Samsung and Hyundai. I also like some smaller names like South Korea Telecom, which trades at 2.75 forward P/E with nearly 5% dividend yield.
But household debt remains a long-term risk for South Korea, so I think you carefully scale in. I took a small position here just to satisfy my FOMO, in case we bounce now that the presidential election is over. I am hoping for further selloff to about $26.20 to take a real entry-level position. I will add more at secondary support around $24. Because of the risk of a credit recession, I am sizing my position so that if I should happen to lose this squid game, I won't get killed. :)
This is part of my recent initiative to diversify away from US stocks.
Those are the kinds of household debt levels that could either plunge the country into recession as credit tightens or cause young Koreans to compete to the death on a dystopian game show for the entertainment of billionaire VIPs.
South Korea looks better in terms of government debt-to-GDP, which allows room for government to provide household debt relief or economic stimulus by growing its debt. That's partly why South Koreans elected a center-left proponent of universal basic income in last Sunday's presidential election.
South Korea's technology-heavy stock index trades at about half the price of other advanced economies on a free cash flow basis. Stocks have sold off sharply in recent months, setting up a possible short-term long-side mean-reversion play. By buying the index, you get large exposure to household names like Samsung and Hyundai. I also like some smaller names like South Korea Telecom, which trades at 2.75 forward P/E with nearly 5% dividend yield.
But household debt remains a long-term risk for South Korea, so I think you carefully scale in. I took a small position here just to satisfy my FOMO, in case we bounce now that the presidential election is over. I am hoping for further selloff to about $26.20 to take a real entry-level position. I will add more at secondary support around $24. Because of the risk of a credit recession, I am sizing my position so that if I should happen to lose this squid game, I won't get killed. :)
This is part of my recent initiative to diversify away from US stocks.
