Some Cautions About Symmetrical Triangles
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A compact, clean-cut Triangle is a fascinating picture, but it has its tricky
features. The beginner in technical chart analysis is quite naturally prone to
look for Triangles constantly, and will often think he has detected them when,
in fact, something entirely different is in the process of development. Remem-
ber that it takes two points to determine a line. The top boundary line of a
price area cannot be drawn until two Minor Trend Tops have been definitely
established, which means that prices must have moved up to and then down
away from both far enough to leave the two peaks standing out clear and
clean on the chart. A bottom boundary line, by the same token, cannot be
drawn until two Minor Trend Bottoms have been definitely established.
Therefore, before you can conclude that a Symmetrical Triangle is building,
you must be able to see four Reversals of Minor Trend. If it comes after an
advance in prices, you must have first a Top, next a Bottom, next a second
Top lower than the first, and finally a second Bottom higher than the first
Bottom (and prices must move up away from the second Bottom before you
can be sure it is a Bottom). Then, and only then, can you draw your boundary
lines and proceed on the assumption that you have a Symmetrical Triangle.
Another point to remember — and one which does not conform at all
to the “coil” simile — is that the farther out into the apex of the Triangle
prices push without bursting its boundaries, the less force or power the
pattern seems to have. Instead of building up more pressure, it begins to
lose its efficacy after a certain stage. The best moves (up or down) seem to
ensue when prices break out decisively at a point somewhere between half
and three quarters of the horizontal distance from the base (left-hand end)
to the apex. If prices continue to move “sideways” in narrower and narrower
fluctuations from day to day after the three quarter mark is passed, they are
quite apt to keep right on to the apex and beyond in a dull drift or ripple
which leaves the chart analyst completely at sea. The best thing to do in such
cases is go away and look for something more promising elsewhere in your
chart book.
And a third tricky point is that it becomes necessary sometimes to redraw
one or both boundaries of a Triangle before it is finally completed (i.e., before
prices break out and move away from it in a decisive fashion). This can
happen, for example, when, after the first two Rally Tops have established
a down-slanting upper boundary line, the third rally starting from the lower
boundary pushes up and through the original Top line by a moderate margin
and then, without developing a recognizable breakout volume on this move,
stops short of surpassing the highest level of the preceding (second) pattern
Top. When prices subsequently drop back again into pattern, it is necessary
to abandon the original upper boundary line and draw a new one across the
highs of the first and third rally tops.
______________________________________
A compact, clean-cut Triangle is a fascinating picture, but it has its tricky
features. The beginner in technical chart analysis is quite naturally prone to
look for Triangles constantly, and will often think he has detected them when,
in fact, something entirely different is in the process of development. Remem-
ber that it takes two points to determine a line. The top boundary line of a
price area cannot be drawn until two Minor Trend Tops have been definitely
established, which means that prices must have moved up to and then down
away from both far enough to leave the two peaks standing out clear and
clean on the chart. A bottom boundary line, by the same token, cannot be
drawn until two Minor Trend Bottoms have been definitely established.
Therefore, before you can conclude that a Symmetrical Triangle is building,
you must be able to see four Reversals of Minor Trend. If it comes after an
advance in prices, you must have first a Top, next a Bottom, next a second
Top lower than the first, and finally a second Bottom higher than the first
Bottom (and prices must move up away from the second Bottom before you
can be sure it is a Bottom). Then, and only then, can you draw your boundary
lines and proceed on the assumption that you have a Symmetrical Triangle.
Another point to remember — and one which does not conform at all
to the “coil” simile — is that the farther out into the apex of the Triangle
prices push without bursting its boundaries, the less force or power the
pattern seems to have. Instead of building up more pressure, it begins to
lose its efficacy after a certain stage. The best moves (up or down) seem to
ensue when prices break out decisively at a point somewhere between half
and three quarters of the horizontal distance from the base (left-hand end)
to the apex. If prices continue to move “sideways” in narrower and narrower
fluctuations from day to day after the three quarter mark is passed, they are
quite apt to keep right on to the apex and beyond in a dull drift or ripple
which leaves the chart analyst completely at sea. The best thing to do in such
cases is go away and look for something more promising elsewhere in your
chart book.
And a third tricky point is that it becomes necessary sometimes to redraw
one or both boundaries of a Triangle before it is finally completed (i.e., before
prices break out and move away from it in a decisive fashion). This can
happen, for example, when, after the first two Rally Tops have established
a down-slanting upper boundary line, the third rally starting from the lower
boundary pushes up and through the original Top line by a moderate margin
and then, without developing a recognizable breakout volume on this move,
stops short of surpassing the highest level of the preceding (second) pattern
Top. When prices subsequently drop back again into pattern, it is necessary
to abandon the original upper boundary line and draw a new one across the
highs of the first and third rally tops.
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