timwest

FXF Swiss Franc washed out at key support

AMEX:FXF   Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust
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2
Wave after wave of selling has driven the Swiss Franc back to new lows over the previous 6 months. Note the psychological breaks of support that should wipe out any "weak" holders of FXF . With Gold on a rebound from the $1500 level and with ongoing trouble in Euro-Land, it would appear that this is a safe entry at the lowest risk. Should FXF break 102, I would exit and look for a climb back over 103.50 to signal a possible re-entry. This ETF isn't active by any means, but currency markets are, so there is potential for liquidity.

13 weeks of time here at 103 to 103.50 in the rally from 86 to 140 alerts me that this is THE MOST important support level for the Swiss Franc . This is the most frequent price and therefore "value".

By: Technical Tim, Tuesday, Jan 10, 2011 1:38PM EST
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Comments

I like the idea and the chart, but FXF has high EUR correlation (60% of Swiss exports and 80% of Swiss imports are to/from EU). This trade would be roughly equivalent to a EUR rebound. That being said, I can't see Germany allowing the EUR to tank since the ease of trade has been the catalyst for their economic growth over the past decade.
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timwest mrd2015
I only have to convince myself to make a trade, but yet trying to make a case in front of everyone increases the thought process of the trade. I thank you for your input and let me know when you can find a trade you will take. Cheers. Tim
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timwest mrd2015
Did you get in on the EUR rebound instead?
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mrd2015 timwest
I was in FXF @ ~104 and out at 108 over about a week. Good call by you good sir. :)
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mrd2015 timwest
Actually, about 2 weeks I guess.
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timwest mrd2015
Great news. :-)
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Algokid timwest
yep, that was a great play, I bought MARCH 111 Calls @.35 , currently trading @ 0.625 ..:))
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.We edged closer and closer to the first “test” of the EUR/CHF floor and after Hildebrand said “tschüß” yesterday I do think that such a “test” will actually occur. But then I suppose there is high probability of new intervention.
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timwest Filibuster
Any further thoughts?
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