GBPAUD Ready for a Breakdown?

1. Retail Sentiment
62% of retail traders are long on GBPAUD, while 38% are short.
Historically, retail positioning tends to be contrarian: an excess of longs often signals further downside pressure.
Volume: 824 long lots vs 506 short lots → net long exposure.
➡ Bias: Contrarian short

2. COT Report
GBP (August 26, 2025)
Non-commercials (speculators): 76k longs vs 107k shorts → net short of -31k.
Commercials: net long, but mainly for hedging purposes.
Trend: large speculators are slightly increasing shorts (+866) while reducing longs (-5,302).
➡ Bias: GBP weakness

AUD (August 26, 2025)
Non-commercials: 28k longs vs 129k shorts → heavily net short AUD.
Commercials have significantly increased long positions (+10,892).
Speculators remain bearish, but defensive positioning is building up.
➡ Bias: AUD still weak, but showing early signs of stabilization

3. Seasonality (September)
GBP: historically negative in September (weakness).
AUD: historically shows a moderately positive trend in September, especially in the last 10 years.
➡ Bias: GBPAUD historically bearish in September

4. Technical Analysis
Structure: the market rejected the 2.09 supply zone and is now consolidating within the 2.03–2.09 range.
Price action suggests a possible rebound towards 2.07–2.08 before a potential breakdown towards 2.03.
➡ Technical bias: Short from supply zones at 2.07–2.08 targeting 2.04–2.03

5. Summary & Trading Scenarios
Macro/COT: GBP remains weak, AUD under pressure but with accumulation signs → mixed outlook, but seasonality favors AUD.
Sentiment: retail traders excessively long → confirms short bias.
Technical: bearish structure with key supports at 2.0430 and 2.0318.

👉 Conclusion: At the moment, GBPAUD shows a bearish bias supported by retail sentiment, seasonality, and price action. The most likely scenario is a test of the 2.04–2.03 zone in the coming weeks.