RyanVarghese

Strap up for upcoming volatility

Long
FX:GBPAUD   British Pound / Australian Dollar
Alright, this is once again a pain trade where I am going against the consensus. The pair have clearly been on a tear since it printed 1.88. Technicals have been aligned on the chart which is hinting for a potential reversal where we can see too many confluences coming at 1.775-1.777.

Taking a dive into some fundamentals on both currency individually.

Australian Dollar: Seasonally, July is the best month for Au and NU to rise and we have seen that in AUDUSD where the pair printed 0.6830 and bounced back above 0.70 with a current closure under 0.70. But we have still few weeks to go and I don't expect AU to cool down so easily.

Despite cutting interest rates byReserve Bank of Australia, AU still took a lift on the stance that further rate cuts would be data-dependent. But overall, the services market in Australia is completely is totally in shambles. Plus, it is a mineral-rich country whose major economy depends on commodities export. The workers in the labor market in Australia are not getting overtime in the mining industry and in the automobile industry. That indicates that growth is slowing down. Some may argue it is because of Trade war tensions but this has been happening before even the trade war issue was on the radar plus the housing market in Australia is nothing but a ticking bomb. An average antipodean cannot afford to buy a house in Sydney or Melbourne at the current pay scale. The only way is to get a mortgage and tie themselves up for 30 years.

Australian Dollar strength is supported by the US Dollar weakness and AU had the largest short position which is unwinding. Hence, AUDUSD popped but now, since we are the cusp of reversal in all sterling pairs, we could see GBPAUD could / might see one more wave down after a pop or it could as well go straight to north from here. All in all, we are in a massive reversal from this zone.

Great British Pound: Recent carnage is the sterling caused due to Mark Carney's statement which indicated a loosening policy where he hinted Bank of England has made its stance by looking at the global weakness in demand and trade war tensions. But the big issue is Brexit an the clock is ticking for its deadline on October 31st.

Boris Johnson has clearly stated two weeks ago that Britain will still exit if there is a no-deal on which GBP still plummeted. But, it also seems that bad news on Sterling is already priced in now. Hence, even slight positive news is enough fro the quid to roar back against all its peers and in my opinion, GBPAUD and GBPNZD are the best pairs in terms of pips and value. Going long GBPUSD wont yield much compared to GA and GN because you cant trust USD with its move and everything will be confirmed by next weeks FOMC meeting.

Just my personal view of looking at it. Feel free to comment as I would be happy to see any other views or ideas which haven't crossed my mind.

Trade closed: target reached

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