GBP / AUD - AWESOME OPPORTUNITY - SHORT

We're in a pretty exciting position right now with Cable and the Aussie dollar, I've done well out of this pair. We're at a major area of confluence for this pair and Sterling is showing some downtrend weakness on the GB Index, with the Aussie showing as a big fat pin par bouncing off a trend line from its long-term lows, it's time for a rebound on the Aussie, so we have Brexit weakness and Mark Carney's negative outlook on the UK economy and then the strength on the Aussie fuelled by increasingly buoyant commodity prices and their ability to shrug off inflation, on average up 0.3 - 1.3% against a basket of major currencies, (I have some profitable trades already in play there too), so we have a major opportunity on our hands to go short!

Comment:

On the daily chart below we have an "Inside bar set-up", bearish pin bar, followed by a big fat bearish pin bar engulfing an indecision candle.

Comment:

Bearish wick on the 4h

Comment:

Bearish pin bar on the 1 hour timeframe.

Comment:

We have Trend confirmed (short-term crossover on the moving average confirms a downtrend), levels and confluence areas known and we have an inside bar set-up with matching time frames. So how do we trade this pair short?

Dependant on when you join the market, because of the heavily supported levels, I'm expecting a retracement back to 1.80800, if that happens, place your stop above the pin bar around 1.82 - 1.825

My target first is the 61.8% fib level at 1.75, followed by a longer term target when I will ride the rest of the trade down towards 1.66.

Comment:

Can we shoot back up the channel? Of course, none of us are wizards of the future and my tarot card reading is shockingly bad, so there is no certainty in anything in trading, so always watch your risk management, only time will tell and don't enter the trade without patience and logic, leave the emotions in bed.

Let the trade come to you, don't chase it, happy hunting
Christopher

Comment:

First target is the top of the 200 day moving average by the way.

Comment:

I'm still waiting for a good pullback on this pair. Look around 1.81

Trade active:

Nice pullback to 1.80 and I'm into the trade, target 1.74 then onto infinity and beyond

Comment:

I'm now targeting 1.79440, GBP has been crazy today and I'd like to be out before the red reports in the morning, at least take some profit before the report.

Comment:

Ascending channel, these are now the new targets

Comment:

I've added to my position on the highs of the channel. There is divergence in volume and the RSI

Comment:

We're slowly moving down the channel and I have some new targets before this morning's Rednews at 9:30, I plan to take profits and close most of my positions by then, volatility expected.

Comment:

75% across the channel before the red (positive news) came out. Took most of the profits and left 5% to run free. Happy. There's another sell trade higher-up, if it retraces further.

Trade closed: target reached

Comment:

We're bouncing off the moving average and as I forecast, we broke out of this long-term channel, we've got lots more number to come which may drive this further south.

Comment:

Anyone else use the reporting spike to short the market again, turning into a nice trade already. Short term since I'm already in this much higher at @1.887 from two weeks ago.... lovely monthly divergence that one!

Comment:

So far so good. We've moved down to 61.8% of the move-up, so we're either going straight back to the highs or drop down to work through the point of control @1.76283 and then onto the next major level of support @1.75930 maybe tomorrow morning, maybe.

Comment:

The Bulls are losing battle on this pair this afternoon, the majority of each volume close is bearish and we're continuing to move to the downside, a test @1.768 will bring in the bulls in anger, we may take profits here or let it move down, price action will tell us, what are your thoughts?

Comment:

I disappear for a few hours and we retest the the intraday high, so far have rejected it and sellers and profit takers are selling it back down, I added to my shorts.

Comment:

Comment:

Continually patient on this pair, we're falling further away from the major channel after this mornings negative CPI numbers, I've added to my positions yesterday and the highs last night using a market order (I love making money while asleep).

More patience, we're falling out of this smaller channel, we are going lower as forecast a few weeks ago.

Trade closed: target reached:

Short term trades have reached their target, more profits taken, long-term position running a fat profit very nicely.

Comment:

Hit 1.76505 profits continue, we can go lower I’m sure

Comment:

Target achieved at 1.76 .... can we go lower?

Comment:

Look at that at candle on the week close, it's going to drop like a stone!!!

Trade closed: target reached:

Final profits taken @1.76 over a 1000 pips easy, plus additional positions. Sold from 1.86 to 1.76, another big trade, May has been a huge month

Comment:

Nice 1h candles developing, do not trade this until close or tomorrow.