workingtraders
Long

$GBPAUD - Earnings Data/Hawkish Minutes could spark a rally

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
181 7 6
Strong support near 1.92500 holding. We are favoring longs, if we can get a strong Earnings data/Hawkish Minutes to spark a rally.

Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) - Looking vs 1.8% or higher vs previous 1.7%
Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) - Looking vs 2.1% or higher vs previous 2.2%

GBP sold off last week on comments from Governor Mark Carney - "Bank of England may raise rate rises later than expected".
Minus the comment from Carney we saw last week the trade deficit decreased to £8.4 billion.
With the spill over from Europe caused by QE - we could start seeing an uptick in Business investment and product/services data.
A side note - We have elections in the UK putting a shadow on GBP - if the conservatives win there is a possibility of Great Britain leaving the European Union.

RBA meeting minutes summary :

Considered rate cut at meeting, decided to pause for more data
Board members "Were of the view that a case to ease policy further might emerge"
Saw benefit in "allowing some time" for economy to adjust to February rate cut
Uncertain how borrowers, savers would behave in a world of very low rates
Lower Australian dollar             to help economy, but still above most estimates of fundamental value
Board discussed risks in housing and commercial property markets
House price growth strong in Sydney, solid in Melbourne, muted elsewhere
Board noted recent cut in rates could, at the margin, boost the housing market
Board also noted household leverage had not increased significantly
Measures of household stress low, banks profitable and well capitalised
RBA working with other regulators to contain risks that might come from housing
Labour market likely to remain sluggish, spare capacity to last for some time
snapshot


Projected time and price targets.
Reply
Gold bumped AUD temporarily, but I think it's still in a major downtrend, and the RBA wants the Aussie dollar cheap.
I'll probably get on board soon.
Reply
workingtraders IvanLabrie
I am hoping with USD rate hikes postponed. Traders will zero in on GBP - as the UK econ is not bad. GBP has been beaten down on pure speculation just as USD was pumped on speculation. Eurozone spilled over caused by QE has to trickle down into the data soon. Aud now more than ever will need cut rates as broad usd strength won't push the pair down anymore.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO workingtraders
Agreed.
Reply
workingtraders IvanLabrie
Keep me posted on when you do get on board. :) Good work on your charts.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO workingtraders
I'll post my entry here.
Reply
position seems to be valid again
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