GBPCHF on the Edge: Why a Major Breakdown Could Be Next

1. Retail Sentiment
90% of retail traders are long, only 10% are short.
Long volume is heavily skewed (536 lots vs 58 short).
➡️ This imbalance suggests a risk of further downside pressure (contrarian view), as markets often move against the retail crowd.

2. COT Report (Sept 2, 2025)
CHF: Non-commercials heavily short (34k vs 8k long). Commercials strongly long, hedging in favor of CHF strength.
➡️ Structural bullish bias for CHF.
GBP: Non-commercials net short (109k vs 76k long). Commercials significantly long (117k vs 85k short), hedging a weak pound.
➡️ Confirms bearish pressure on GBP.
Summary: Strong CHF – Weak GBP → Main direction: Short GBPCHF.

3. Seasonality (September)
CHF: Historically strong in September.
GBP: Historically weak in September.
➡️ Seasonality supports a short bias on GBPCHF.

4. Price Action
Strong rejection from weekly supply zone (1.0850–1.0900).
Bearish continuation candle below 1.0800 resistance.
Next support: 1.0700–1.0680 zone.
RSI trending lower with no divergence → bearish momentum intact.

5. Trading Plan
Bias: Short GBPCHF.
Key levels:
Resistance: 1.0800 / 1.0850 (ideal short re-entry).
Support: 1.0700 (first target), extension to 1.0650–1.0620 if bearish pressure continues.
Strategy: Wait for a pullback into 1.0800–1.0850 to short, stop above 1.0900. Targets: 1.0700 → 1.0650.
If price breaks straight below 1.0700, expect continuation towards 1.0620.

✅ Pro conclusion: All factors (COT, sentiment, seasonality, technicals) align in favor of CHF strength and GBP weakness. The best setup is a short re-entry near 1.0800–1.0850, targeting 1.0700 and 1.0650 with controlled risk above 1.0900.