GBP/NZD Analysis on multiple time frames. My thoughts. Overall.1
Hello, traders! My name is Den, I'm from Ukraine, retail trader. This is my first experience of sharing my view on the market. Currently in my sight are GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD.
Let's begin with a weekly chart analysis.
So:
1. Beginning from the November 16' we can clearly observe a valid up trend. So on a weekly we are drawing a trend line which has been tested several times in the past. Lastly in July 19'. We can possibly see another reaction to the trend line soon.
2. Also we can see a rising wedge that has been formed, broken and retested in May 15 2020.
3. A massive zone that has been valid since 2017 and retested in June 11 and 16 2020. Zone coordinates 1.96172 - 1.95490.
4. Last but not least in our weekly chart - parallel channel in which the price has been moving since 2016.
Let's move on:
Daily chart:
1. After breaking a rising wedge price firstly found a support around 2.01661 - 2.00619 (observable on a daily and weekly chart) then retested a wedge and continued it's move downwards confirming bearish mood.
2. We used a parallel channel to highlight price move.
3. Another support broken and retested.
Sometimes to confirm the trend me personally use EMA (exponential moving average) with length 50 and 200 or 8 and 21 for smaller TF.
4 Hours:
1. Clearly see the price moving in a parallel channel mentioned before.
2. Bearish market since the price formed a double top formation in April 2020.
3. Another zone broken 1.93913 - 1.93556.
1 Hour:
1. Another descending parallel channel. We've put a parallel channel in a parallel channel for you to observe a parallel channel in a parallel channel =) (West coast customs reference).
2. Channel was tested several times. Now I'm seeing a 4th touch to the upper channel boundary.
Time for my opinion on possible trades!
1) Wait for the breakout to occur or not with a confirmation on a 4H time frame.
2) See the price action and looking for a a pullback to our previous resistance ( 1.93913 - 1.93556). In this stage we can possibly open a short-term long position with a RR 1:3. And after that i expect move downwards to 1.90000 (our trend line on a weekly chart). But again - only in case i have a clear price action confirmation.
3) If the breakout of our trend line 1H TF does not occur - i expect move downwards to 1.90000 (our trend line on a weekly chart) even without a pullback and retest of previous resistance/support. In this case we can expect a decent trade with a 1:5 RR ratio.
CONCLUSION.
I am bearish on GBP/NZD currently because we do have a bearish market. YES, price can retest a 1.93556 level, if this occurs - wait for a price action confirmation for the next move whether it is up or downside.
I expect that the price reaches 1.90000 level. (Trend line on Weekly and Daily chart).
Recently i started to use MFI (money flow indicator). It's similar to RSI but incorporates Volume. But as you know on Forex market there is no accurate information on volumes. But still MFI is a decent indicator but in this case i have no useful information from it.
Almost forgot - Fibonacci Retracement - great tool to use. In this case it can be usefull. 38.2% tested already and 50% is just the same level as our resistance zone - around 1.93913. Used Fib 100% as a previous swing high -
Anyways, i could have missed something, but due to the fact it's my 1 analysis, shared with you, guys - forgive me =)
Let me know what do you think about GBP/NZD and down in the comment section.
In case this was useful for you - press like, thanks!
Have a positive trading statistic guys and huge profits, BYE!
P.S. Adding images of a Weekly chart, Daily and 4 H. Next time will make a video analysis, my bad)
Weekly
Daily
4 HOURS
1 HOUR CLEAN CHART
Let's begin with a weekly chart analysis.
So:
1. Beginning from the November 16' we can clearly observe a valid up trend. So on a weekly we are drawing a trend line which has been tested several times in the past. Lastly in July 19'. We can possibly see another reaction to the trend line soon.
2. Also we can see a rising wedge that has been formed, broken and retested in May 15 2020.
3. A massive zone that has been valid since 2017 and retested in June 11 and 16 2020. Zone coordinates 1.96172 - 1.95490.
4. Last but not least in our weekly chart - parallel channel in which the price has been moving since 2016.
Let's move on:
Daily chart:
1. After breaking a rising wedge price firstly found a support around 2.01661 - 2.00619 (observable on a daily and weekly chart) then retested a wedge and continued it's move downwards confirming bearish mood.
2. We used a parallel channel to highlight price move.
3. Another support broken and retested.
Sometimes to confirm the trend me personally use EMA (exponential moving average) with length 50 and 200 or 8 and 21 for smaller TF.
4 Hours:
1. Clearly see the price moving in a parallel channel mentioned before.
2. Bearish market since the price formed a double top formation in April 2020.
3. Another zone broken 1.93913 - 1.93556.
1 Hour:
1. Another descending parallel channel. We've put a parallel channel in a parallel channel for you to observe a parallel channel in a parallel channel =) (West coast customs reference).
2. Channel was tested several times. Now I'm seeing a 4th touch to the upper channel boundary.
Time for my opinion on possible trades!
1) Wait for the breakout to occur or not with a confirmation on a 4H time frame.
2) See the price action and looking for a a pullback to our previous resistance ( 1.93913 - 1.93556). In this stage we can possibly open a short-term long position with a RR 1:3. And after that i expect move downwards to 1.90000 (our trend line on a weekly chart). But again - only in case i have a clear price action confirmation.
3) If the breakout of our trend line 1H TF does not occur - i expect move downwards to 1.90000 (our trend line on a weekly chart) even without a pullback and retest of previous resistance/support. In this case we can expect a decent trade with a 1:5 RR ratio.
CONCLUSION.
I am bearish on GBP/NZD currently because we do have a bearish market. YES, price can retest a 1.93556 level, if this occurs - wait for a price action confirmation for the next move whether it is up or downside.
I expect that the price reaches 1.90000 level. (Trend line on Weekly and Daily chart).
Recently i started to use MFI (money flow indicator). It's similar to RSI but incorporates Volume. But as you know on Forex market there is no accurate information on volumes. But still MFI is a decent indicator but in this case i have no useful information from it.
Almost forgot - Fibonacci Retracement - great tool to use. In this case it can be usefull. 38.2% tested already and 50% is just the same level as our resistance zone - around 1.93913. Used Fib 100% as a previous swing high -
Anyways, i could have missed something, but due to the fact it's my 1 analysis, shared with you, guys - forgive me =)
Let me know what do you think about GBP/NZD and down in the comment section.
In case this was useful for you - press like, thanks!
Have a positive trading statistic guys and huge profits, BYE!
P.S. Adding images of a Weekly chart, Daily and 4 H. Next time will make a video analysis, my bad)
Weekly
Comment:
Bearish scenario goes to the back seat
Expect 1.9500 with a pullback to or even without it
Short-term bullish, at the 1.9500 will see next targets
Expect 1.9500 with a pullback to or even without it
Short-term bullish, at the 1.9500 will see next targets
Trade active:
Next targets :
Order cancelled:
We did not enter this trade, probably returning to our primary plan and short.
We'll get in touch in next post.
We'll get in touch in next post.
Analyzing...
We reached our resistance at 1.93913 - 1.93556
In case we have a clear and strong breakout - our short forecast will be invalid
Waiting for a price action confirmation
On a daily TF we have a strong bullish momentum
So if we have a bullish scenario - next targets 1.95500, then 2.00599 (long term)
Actually as expected we could have taken a nice long trade with 1:4, 1:5
Great job who did catch this move!