GBPNZD - 1h - Breakout from trendchannel

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
Try to use the breakout of this trendchannel to catch the move that is completing the shark pattern.
Comment: do some agressive trimming now to protect profits. we are gettin down in rough territory and since we have no wave structure we are super oversold here. and i dont wanna get stuck in a long correction move here.
Hi, really nice chart. I thought I should add that most people trading these patterns target 0.618. It might be worth looking into using that level for partial profit taking (i.e. 1/3). The reason pick that level is because markets often reverse from there.
thanks for the reply. im not quite sure what 0.618 retracement u mean.
kosai19 SergeantPringles
I mean the high to target of the pattern (2.246 to 2.156). So 0.618 of that distance is 2.19. To make profit most people use tight stops from the highs. If you want to trade the normal targets you can just exit 1/3 of your position at that level. If you do the math I think you gain something like 85% of the profit you would have made if you didn't exit any partial position. But that 15% profit loss you gain by having a position that has no risk or substantially reducing your risk without moving stops. It's a great money management tool and will pay dividends to stabilizing your account in down-turns without adversely effecting profits too much.
ah ok, now i understand it a bit better what u mean. i didnt know about that level. but why would the distance between this zones even matter. I mean the highs are relevant i get that, but whats the relevance of the potential completion point of a hypothetical pattern. i would get if you wanna draw the 61.8 from the full shark, so 2.246 to 2.150 that would at least make sence to me as a potential level.

kosai19 SergeantPringles
Oh sorry... I think I've confused your chart pattern. I thought for some odd reason that you were selling from the high and hoping to profit at that "target." The way you worded it on your diagram that's what I had assumed. Your target is where you plan to buy for that pattern to "trigger you into a trade". So if you bought you would take the extreme highs and lows and exit at the 0.618 (part or all). I'm just saying that's how a lot of people use this pattern. Even though the theory says to exit at the high, most traders have found out that it often reverses at 0.618, that's the only reason for a full or partial exit (to increase your win rate significantly by eliminating risk). It's kind of like insurance.
Well thus far i didnt do anything yet but if we break the small between 2.20 and 2.22 to the downside im planning to go short. overall im goin short because of the breakout of the bigger trendchannel (white dashed lines)
the shark is only here to keep an eye for potential reversal zones that might hurt my short. why is why i drew it in as a potential target zone.
SergeantPringles SergeantPringles
if we break the small "range" between...
kosai19 SergeantPringles
Yeah, I understand... I've noticed that a high percentage of these patterns fail in general. It seems like you have to combine it with other methods to see if markets can really reverse from there or not.
yeah i guess
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