GBPUSD 4H/1D Top May Be In - Exhibit A
This is an analysis of the 4H Pound/USD chart from the low on Tue. the 2nd to the current high. This analysis uses Magenta counting and the SandTiger indicator script to track the counts.
I've placed descriptive notes throughout the chart, so hopefully those will work for you after I submit this...
Magenta counts are always based on prime values. The 'primes' are typically obtained by counting pushpull1 (in this case points -2 to 6) using a 'terminals included' (Ti) count, and a 'terminals excluded' (Tx) count. In this sequence that results in the values 8 and 6 which you see at the top of the SandTiger label.
This prime set is then filtered of odd values (this particular set has none) to obtain the 'components list' shown in the 'SandTiger Label' (STL) section 2. From this list and the prime set we get all the values shown in STL sections 2 & 4. The 'Dyad' values in section 3 include the 'push1' value in their calculations. Markets use all of these values for directional shifts in both straight and curved sequences/trends.
We track 3 count processes in this sequence:
(To use SandTiger on this simply select the starting candle, enter the high prime of 8, then the 'push1' value of 4. You may need to adjust the 'Start Count At' field to make sure your count starts with zero at the low and ends pushpull1 at 8. You should also be running 'Event Locator Basic' so that you can visually see all countable points. If there are any DMC's (red-tipped candles) in the sequence, make sure that SandTiger marks the count path correctly around the DMC. DMC's can occasionally throw off the script. In this sequence there are no DMC's - but you can see an example of two of them in the 4/4 move leading up to the sequence - with the count path shown as a black 'path' line.)
Let's start analyzing the counts in the order they appear above. A 'cycle' in Magenta is defined as a 12-count process. Cycles skip FCT terminals except where a 'count-through' signal appears. The second FCT in our sequence is an example of a count-thru because the initial terminal appears within territory previously covered in the sequence. So we 'green mark' the FCT. FCT's with skipped terminals appear in red. So the 'cycle' begins counting at zero, skips both terminals of the first FCT, then counts the initial terminal of the next FCT (Fractured Counter-Trend). End of Cycle lands on (no surprise) point 12 within the second FCT. The 'type' counts the same way. We get 4 in push1, then 2+2 in pull1 and push2 for a 4/4 type. If we append our 4/4 type to EOC, it ends at point 20. The volatility between points 17 and 18 seems to be 'mid-marking' the final value of our anti-type. So that's pretty good evidence to support a 4/4 type... We also have a second line of support, the 4/4 move that proceeded our sequence...
On to the 'components' count (teal callouts)... Our components list is 8, 6, 4, 2, but this count does not have to proceed in this order. Here it appears to count 6, 8, 4, 2 and ends, again, at 20. Like the other counts, it skips red FCT terminals.
Finally, we have the special values count. These three values, 40, 20, and 10 appear below the 'derivatives' in the STL. What we usually look for is for the lowest value, in this case 10, to count evenly into one of the higher values... if not 20 or 40, then one of the derivatives... In this sequence, it's 20 that lines up with our other counts and also appears in the Dyad list.
Conclusions: On market open I'll be looking for price to drop w/o breaching the current sequence high (1.27858 at point 21). We're about 32 pips from this now. I'll probably wait to see if we can get any closer - within 20 pips would be great, but if we start moving down I'll be jumping in as soon as the spread contracts w/ a stop 2-3 pips above the 1.27858 level.
I've placed descriptive notes throughout the chart, so hopefully those will work for you after I submit this...
Magenta counts are always based on prime values. The 'primes' are typically obtained by counting pushpull1 (in this case points -2 to 6) using a 'terminals included' (Ti) count, and a 'terminals excluded' (Tx) count. In this sequence that results in the values 8 and 6 which you see at the top of the SandTiger label.
This prime set is then filtered of odd values (this particular set has none) to obtain the 'components list' shown in the 'SandTiger Label' (STL) section 2. From this list and the prime set we get all the values shown in STL sections 2 & 4. The 'Dyad' values in section 3 include the 'push1' value in their calculations. Markets use all of these values for directional shifts in both straight and curved sequences/trends.
We track 3 count processes in this sequence:
- A cycle count with a type/anti-type (blue/red callouts, black 'EOC' callout),
- A components count (teal callouts), and
- A special values count (yellow/red callout).
(To use SandTiger on this simply select the starting candle, enter the high prime of 8, then the 'push1' value of 4. You may need to adjust the 'Start Count At' field to make sure your count starts with zero at the low and ends pushpull1 at 8. You should also be running 'Event Locator Basic' so that you can visually see all countable points. If there are any DMC's (red-tipped candles) in the sequence, make sure that SandTiger marks the count path correctly around the DMC. DMC's can occasionally throw off the script. In this sequence there are no DMC's - but you can see an example of two of them in the 4/4 move leading up to the sequence - with the count path shown as a black 'path' line.)
Let's start analyzing the counts in the order they appear above. A 'cycle' in Magenta is defined as a 12-count process. Cycles skip FCT terminals except where a 'count-through' signal appears. The second FCT in our sequence is an example of a count-thru because the initial terminal appears within territory previously covered in the sequence. So we 'green mark' the FCT. FCT's with skipped terminals appear in red. So the 'cycle' begins counting at zero, skips both terminals of the first FCT, then counts the initial terminal of the next FCT (Fractured Counter-Trend). End of Cycle lands on (no surprise) point 12 within the second FCT. The 'type' counts the same way. We get 4 in push1, then 2+2 in pull1 and push2 for a 4/4 type. If we append our 4/4 type to EOC, it ends at point 20. The volatility between points 17 and 18 seems to be 'mid-marking' the final value of our anti-type. So that's pretty good evidence to support a 4/4 type... We also have a second line of support, the 4/4 move that proceeded our sequence...
On to the 'components' count (teal callouts)... Our components list is 8, 6, 4, 2, but this count does not have to proceed in this order. Here it appears to count 6, 8, 4, 2 and ends, again, at 20. Like the other counts, it skips red FCT terminals.
Finally, we have the special values count. These three values, 40, 20, and 10 appear below the 'derivatives' in the STL. What we usually look for is for the lowest value, in this case 10, to count evenly into one of the higher values... if not 20 or 40, then one of the derivatives... In this sequence, it's 20 that lines up with our other counts and also appears in the Dyad list.
Conclusions: On market open I'll be looking for price to drop w/o breaching the current sequence high (1.27858 at point 21). We're about 32 pips from this now. I'll probably wait to see if we can get any closer - within 20 pips would be great, but if we start moving down I'll be jumping in as soon as the spread contracts w/ a stop 2-3 pips above the 1.27858 level.