markyoung

Watching GBPUSD's well-behaved Fibonacci retracements

FX:GBPUSD   BRITISH POUND / U.S. DOLLAR
These Fibonacci levels are redrawn every time a -23.6% line or 61.8% line is broken. On this 15 minute chart the fibs are based on 120 minute bars to reduce the noise of the 15 minute time frame - blue arrows show when fibs were redrawn due to a close beyond the green or red lines of the prior set of fibs.

Based on past observations, price will likely cycle between 50% & 0% until something changes in fundamentals that causes price to break the green or red lines. Sometimes - when nothing much is going on - the 38.2% line will provide support/resistance , so it is turned on for this chart. It never seems to carry as much weight as the 50% line in terms of support/resistance .

In accordance with my personal trading plan, the 50% retrace (yellow line) will be a potential short entry, -23.6% (green line) a potential long entry.
Comment:
snapshot


Here is the same chart seen in 120 minute bars, the timeframe on which the fibs are based. Following the initial swing, the 50%, 61.8%, and -23.6% lines often highlight a likely trading range until the next larger swing takes place.
Comment:
snapshot

Another trend change on 120 minute fib with a sharp pullback to the new 50% yellow line
Comment:
snapshot


When there are several trend changes in rapid succession, it helps to step back and use a higher resolution fib pattern.

This pattern was calculated on 8 hour bars versus 2 hour bars and shows how the lower timeframe trends are always part of a higher timeframe cycle.
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