Sforex

GBPUSD: Payrolls + Super Thursday + Wedge pattern

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
272 0 2
Next week is a very important week for financial market with lot of economic data are released.

We have 4 employment reports:
- US
- Canada
- New Zealand
- Australia

And 3 central banks meetings:
- RBA
- BOE
- BOJ

I especially concentrate in US Nonfarm payrolls and BOE meeting where I believe those data could trigger a significant move and push volatility as well as volume in FX market

Payrolls is the most important data this week,we only have two payrolls ahead September FED meeting; so the data is considered as an leading indicator for FED decision: any strong number would inrease the opportunity of rate hike and vice versa.

As usual,I will post Payroll heatmap on my page and website : I need more incoming data to finish the heat map specificly ISM PMI + ADP report.

However, I saw the jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1973, so I believe that payrolls would be a positive number and continue support the greenback.

Cable: We have a Inflation report + BOE Meeting + Press Conference on Thursday , so market call it's Super Thursday.

The move of Calbe this month will be decided on Thursday.

What does market expect ?.

- Market want to see BOE to be more hawkish : BOE is expected as the next ' lift-up" central bank following FED., if they disappoint market: market will punish Cable unregretedly and send GBPUSD             to 1.500 easily.

In my opinion, 60% BOE will shift their bias to HAWKISH.

AND IF PAYROLLS IS NEGATIVE, GBPUSD             COULD SOAR 200-300 PIPS TO RETEST 1.5900

Only 40% BOE choose to stand toward NEUTRAL STANCE.

It's very difficult to pricing GBPUSD             next week.

All depend on DATA.

HOWEVER, TO CHOOSE A SIDE AMONG : LONG - NEUTRAL - SHORT

I CHOOSE SHORT.

DESPITE MEMBERS IN MY TEAM CHOOSE LONG.

- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GBPUSD             sideway in a wedge pattern I draw on the chart.

Strong resistance at 1.5675

A trend line is below the price candlestick.

The blockade is very tight.

It means GBPUSD             MUST BREAK THE WEDGE TO CHOOSE A TREND.

A BREAKOUT ABOVE THE RESISTANCE IS ABSOLUTELY UPTREND .

A BREAKOUT BELOW THE TREND LINE IS DEFINITELY DOWNTREND.

RSI indicator shows the same result with the pric action.

If Cable chooses uptrend: 1.5900 is the target.

if Cabl chooses downtrend: 1.5335 is the target

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