Like I said in this article, I was right when I forecast the of GBPUSD .
Win +200 pips.
Although Pound goes up as I expect, I don't think the appreciation is stable. UK CPI indeed was not good as market expects, and we should rethink about recent of Sterling.
Tomorrow, the main focus :
- UK Retail Sales
- US CPI
While I maintain the gradual improvement of US CPI to 2% target as FED expect, I begin to doubt about UK Retail Sales data. UK Retail Sales Price just rose by 0.1% to 1% from 0.9% ; this signals for potential weak of UK Retail Sales. If UK Retail Sales is negative, traders have a good reason to take profit their long position of GBPUSD .
Back to US CPI , the main reason for the depreciation of US CPI is come from the falling of energy price, but the energy price rose from the low 45 to near 62 recent months and send a relief reason for CPI , the improvement of labor market + eanring pickup, I think US CPI could be positive.
In the FED meeting, Janet Yellen didn't send a clear message about the timeframe for rate, so we should come back data to trade because she many time repeated that FED is a data dependent, only data could solve the USDollat problem currently.
Look at on the chart,I see one problem.
GBPUSD now stop at resistanc zone 1.5830, this is also 50% FIB retracement.
50% FIB retracement is very important, price needs to bounce back to maintain a trend.
I see GBPUSP broke inturn SMA50,SMA100,SMA200, and , but I don't think GBPUSD could break 50% Fib retracement because Fundamental doesn't support for a strong trend while greenback demand is still high.
That why I think GBPUSD will bounce back from this .
I open a SHORT position of GBPUSD at current price 1.5845, stop at 1.5910, take profit at 1.5700
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