Speculating on some further downside for G/U

FX:GBPUSD   Pound Sterling/U.S. Dollar
476 16 8
Well as the title suggests this is another speculative short on the retracement to the .50 / .618 Fibo resistance. Bearish price action we have at the moment is the long legged doji at Fibonacci resistance(Shows that bears did enter the market, and bulls came back into the market but were not able to make a higher close). The following day added to bearish conviction with bulls making an unsuccessful attempt to break yesterday's high, and price closing below yesterday's closing price (Showing bears are starting to take control of this pair once again).

Stops are outlined, risk is favorable in regards to the reward offered. Trade is taken in two parts, upon reaching the first target stops are moved to break even.

Cheers, and happy trading! =)
Update: 1st Target Met, Cheers. =)
+1 Reply
Daniel, nice job again. You're getting a bit too good at this now.
Whilst I look at higher time frames, I primarily trade off the 1h chart so I was long yesterday and short today. Sounds good but lots of ups and downs, noise and missing a lot of pips because of the news.

Your trading is a first hand example of why trading the daily charts can be very advantageous.

How does the news and intraday sentiment affect your trading?
1. Do you ignore the news?
£ Retail sales and $ unemployment claims economic data today could have moved the market in either direction.
2. Are you not interested in taking advantage of a bullish set up like yesterday where the market rallied about 80 pips?
+1 Reply
Daniel.B DerekUweri71
Hey Derek thanks for the comment! Yea there's a handful of reasons why I only trade Daily / Weekly charts, mostly because I do work full-time and I can't monitor the market all day, and second because the higher time frame setups have a much higher probability of success, along with a less volatile stream of income & growth.

-For the most part I ignore intra-day news, for me its more or less just noise. The only data I keep in mind is the overall fundamentals of a stock / bond / or currency.
-The reason why I ignore intra-day news. For example, with the UK rate hikes pending a lot of people are buying because there is a "possibility" of a hike, the keyword being possibility. So that may take control of price action for a week but after that things go back to normal, and even if they don't a lot of people get caught in the euphoria forgetting that nothing goes straight up / down, there will always be pullbacks whether they're shallow or deep.
-And for your last question, I'm not really interested in taking intra-day setups as the probability of success is much lower (due to stop hunts, intra-week data releases, etc), which means that my position sizing gets drawn down. Which equals overall less profit for me. Also, the psychological factor with intra-day trading is just not for me, I rather just put positions on and only have to monitor how they closed at the end of the trading day. In short, I rather put on 1 successful large trade, vs 3-10 unsuccessful intra-day trades that yield less profit. (That's just me though, as there are very talented day-traders that have found success in intra-day trading.)

Hope I answered your questions correctly, if not feel free to let me know. And I can do my best to clarify hehe.
+1 Reply
Thanks Daniel, you have answered my questions correctly. I think there are benefits of trading the daily charts for the reasons you mentioned and I'm learning to trade the daily when I see a set up. But like I mentioned, I trade primarily the 1H which, like yesterday, means grabbing a couple more opportunities but of course , there's the noise, news etc. I guess both have their advantages depending on what is suitable to you. I'm just striving to be one of those talented day traders that you mentioned above. Hehe (as you would say).
Doing it full-time gives me the opportunity and time to trade intra-day.

Isn't this something you would consider doing full-time?
+1 Reply
Daniel.B DerekUweri71
Great good to hear I was able to answer them! They were really good questions Derek! =) And your totally right, they both have their advantages / disadvantages depending on the objective of the individual trader.

That's quite a goal, just treat this as a business and you should be fine! And really strive to learn the business and keep things as simple as possible and you should do fine! Just know that if you want to become a full-time day-trader that the learning curve is steep and the attrition rate is quite large among day traders. Read, read, read, learn from others mistakes.

I did do it full time as a retail trader for a couple months. Right now I just returned to New York to continue my career in Asset Management, so I guess you can say I do it full-time (I just do it for an firm lol), but all the trades I post on here are for my personal trading account. =)
Lucky you , to have a career in asset management.
There's nothing like working in a discipline where you are already passionate about. I'm a chartered accountant by profession (USA equivalent of CPA) and there's only so much passion you can have. If any.

My objectives are quite realistic and nothing too exuberant for now.
That is to consistently make on average 30 pips a day. Hence I use the 1 hour chart. Of course there are trades where I can get 80-100 pips and there are some days where I totally mess things up, but on average, 30 pips a day is very doable. When I'm satisfied with the achievement of this goal, then I can change it.

But like you said, it has to be treated like a business or any other profession. Work, work work!! I know how hard I worked to become a certified accountant so I don't expect anything less. And that is something I wasn't really passionate about so the passion for the financial markets doesn't make it seem like too much work. But yeah, you have to be prepared to work hard.

You learn something new every day! I wish I knew then what I know now.
But of course, that's not how the learning curve works.
Your Channel Depicts Bullishness = Higher Highs + Higher Lows.
For Short, ......hmmm....., I Don't Doubt The Possibility Of Price Retracing To 50% The Bull Of 2015-07-14 Before The Lift Of, Though.
50% = Somewhere In The Neighbourhood Of Your Blue Moving Average Line.
+1 Reply
Daniel.B moorekapital
Yes it does depict HH's + HL's, but channels are broken all the time. I can always be wrong though hehe. Anyhow thanks for the comment and your chart analysis that you posted on here! Best of luck on the trade =)
Good analysis Daniel.
+1 Reply
Daniel.B DerekUweri71
Thanks Derek, I appreciate the kind comment! =)
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