4xForecaster
Short

Bears Pound Sterling | $GBP $USD #Forex

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
1166 20 10
Traders,

Predictive/forecasting model defined the following two bearish targets:

1 - TG-Lo = 1.55764 - 28 OCT             2014

and

2 - TG-x = 1.54661 - 28 OCT             2014.

A discreet geometry could also be playing out via the height of a first significant retracement, projected downward. This method is similar to the Euclidean module projection (EMP), lining up perfectly with the first target defined above.

Invalidation of this bearish outlook may be first weakened by price rising above the 1.6225 level, whereas a break above the 1.65235 should force a reconsideration of an entirely new trading plan. In contrast, a break through the 1.58736 floor would add credence to the model's forecast, as defined by the targets above.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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thanks david
+1 Reply
david invverted head and shoulders at H4 chart
+1 Reply
yes, inverted h&s, this idea is gonna be stopped out
+1 Reply
Not after the FOMC meeting...and also H&S is just a pattern, it needs a context to mean something. In the context of this chart, I'd say it's not that relevant vs the whole price action preceding it. (I've noticed they tend to be more effective when they are isolated as tops of an impulse, say last part of wave 3, then wave 4,5,a,b and first half of c if a zigzag's present). Big weakness in other gbp pairs as well.

David, awesome, as usual, you'll nail another one dead on I'm sure :D
+1 Reply
30 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD - Predictive Model strengthened its bearish stance, pushing price closer to targets:

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@tradingview | $GBP
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
05 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD continues to decline as forecast; Carved new structure low; Wolfe awaits:

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@radingview | $GBP $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Nice, I was waiting for this to resolve, in the weekly...I'll ride it short once my trade confirms. Thanks David :D
Reply
thanks david
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - You are very welcome. I refrained from commenting on your head & shoulder pattern formation, waiting for price to move per forecast, simply to illustrate that pattern trading using standard formation is a risky business. A trader who uses patterns needs to look at other technical components supporting his/her directional bias, and not the pattern. Patterns are mental projections of a directional wish, against a set of indicators which may offer more substantive, objective evidence in support of a technical outlook. I hope you did not lose any money off of your pattern - David
+1 Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD carves out new lows as forecast; Bearish target pending:

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via @tradingview | $GBP $USD #BOE #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
It all clicks eventually...great chart.
Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD - Recap: Moved in forecast direction; remains bearish; targets intact:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/#.VF2VvBMspUE.twitter

via @tradingview | $GBP $USD #Forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Sorry to be annoying. What about this pin bar at very close your TG-Low? Do you see this as reversal sign or the target should be hit first?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Hi, @HamedAghajani -You are not being annoying at all. I am waiting for a target-hit. If price opens a new bar and that next bar closes above the current one, then I would call it a near-hit. If instead, the new bar remains active within the range of this current one, then I will wait for a hit. The shape of the candle is important if that is what you are looking for. The predictive/forecasting model operates independent of price, as far as defining a target, and remains related to price thereafter only so long as it awaits for price to hit its target.

David

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kmk.msp 4xForecaster
great answer
+2 Reply
15 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD moved as forecast; Bearish target @ 1.55764 remains pending:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $GBP $USD #BOE #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD - Bearish targets remain unanswered; Favors bear; Break > 1.58736 = bullish:

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@tradingview $GBP $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
hi david
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09 DEC 0214 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD hit 1.55764 target; 1.54661 = low-prob; Reversal to 1.65235 = 0.618 #fibonacci likely:

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@tradingview $GBP
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David Alcindor
Reply
15 DEC 2014 - Update;

From Twitter:
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$GBPUSD mulls 1.54661 since hitting 1.55764 target; 0.618 #fibonacci lurks above:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $GBP $USD
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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