... But there are few things I don't like:
- Daily triple negative divergence
- Daily Slow turning down again, with printing slightly lower top on this cross.
- 1,6820-40 resistance held three times.
- 4 Hrs dropped to very low level, sub 15 now!
- 4 Hrs Slow turning down, with a lower last high
I don't tell you to rush and open shorts, but I think it is time to think about closing longs as minimum!
From current level I expect some minor correction down to 1,6690, or if the correction can get more momentum, then down to 1,6630-1,6650. However if you look at the , this is nothing really. We could not even call it a real correction, not even a swing in this long lasting trend.
What we have to closely watch is rather the . Which way the price will break out of this tightenning triangle? Looking at DXY , and at different USD crosses in general I have a gut feeling that we may see a surprise in GBPUSD soon, which means a reversal. But to make sure the trend is really over, and it really starts a (not just a sideaway consolidation), we need to see the followings on the daily chart: , Tenkan/Kijun signal, and most importantly by the Price crossing the Kumo ( Kumo breakout), which needs to be confirmed by trading below previous low (1,6450), by Chikou crossing below the price candles.
I already bought some Put options. I think given that implied Vol . is very low now, this is the most comfortable and quite cheap way to put some bets on a possible reversal within next 1-2 months.
In case price breaks and stays above 1,6840, that will invalidate this idea and also Puts should be sold at mkt before their maturity.
It should really trade below 1,6750 to be able to start minimum a counter trend, and a big reversal can take place only below 1,6500.