Kumowizard

GBPUSD - Can it develop into a bearish surprise? (Watch!)

FX:GBPUSD   BRITISH POUND / U.S. DOLLAR
252 2 0
Looking at Ichimoku components and the trend alone, it is defenately bullish on both time frames. But...!

... But there are few things I don't like:

- Daily MACD triple negative divergence
- Daily Slow Stoch turning down again, with printing slightly lower top on this cross.
- 1,6820-40 resistance held three times.
- 4 Hrs             ADX dropped to very low level, sub 15 now!
- 4 Hrs             Slow Stoch turning down, with a lower last high

I don't tell you to rush and open shorts, but I think it is time to think about closing longs as minimum!
From current level I expect some minor correction down to 1,6690, or if the correction can get more momentum, then down to 1,6630-1,6650. However if you look at the daily chart , this is nothing really. We could not even call it a real correction, not even a swing in this long lasting bull trend.

What we have to closely watch is rather the daily chart . Which way the price will break out of this tightenning triangle? Looking at DXY             , and at different USD crosses in general I have a gut feeling that we may see a surprise in GBPUSD             soon, which means a bearish reversal. But to make sure the bull trend is really over, and it really starts a bearish trend (not just a sideaway consolidation), we need to see the followings on the daily chart: Trend line break , Tenkan/Kijun bearish signal, and most importantly by the Price crossing the Kumo ( bearish Kumo breakout), which needs to be confirmed by trading below previous low (1,6450), by Chikou crossing below the price candles.

I already bought some Put options. I think given that implied Vol. is very low now, this is the most comfortable and quite cheap way to put some bets on a possible bearish reversal within next 1-2 months.

In case price breaks and stays above 1,6840, that will invalidate this idea and also Puts should be sold at mkt before their maturity.
Yep, same idea here. I have some shorts open at the moment
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Kumowizard PRO MichaelDesmadril
yes, me too. Looks price action may be worse a bit on 1 Hr and 4 Hrs time frames. I was thinking about to add a new post, but not much changed since this last one. MACD divergence persists on daily, and almost crosses bearish. It seems Cable struggles to break through this 1,6820 resistance.
It should really trade below 1,6750 to be able to start minimum a counter trend, and a big reversal can take place only below 1,6500.
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