Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GBPUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 48 - Nov 23
M > Market is respecting downward trend-line as resistance. Price reached monthly resistance coinciding with the trend-line, got rejected and dropped. We saw a W pattern, its neck also coincided with 0.618 Fib level on last impulse, however price retraced to the upside failing to test the neck.
W > Price has retraced till 0.786 Fib level on last impulse. We can now expect price to drop.
D > Price is now facing rejection at daily creating a , We now expect a downward move. We can also see divergence.
As per GBP saw closure of Long and addition of Short, reducing net positions further, however N-R have added Long and closed Short and Commercials have closed both Long and Short positions - bringing Short for them to least in current year. BXY however has been gaining strength for past 3 weeks. GBP is seeing closure of Long since August, bringing overall position of Long almost same as position held by N-R. Open interest in GBP has also reduced during the same period.
4H > Price is currently testing daily support in its move, we can also see divergence, however we must see confirmed price reversal for taking any Short position.
Pair Correlation > GBPUSD has positive correlation with GBPJPY , NZDUD and GBPCHF and negative correlation with EURGBP .
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