Implications for GBP/USD in 2024: Political Transitions and Econ
Recent polls indicate a decline in Rishi Sunak's popularity below that of predecessor Truss among pivotal British voters. The Tories face a net loss of 520,000 votes since the Prime Minister's October conference speech, intensifying pressure on Sunak as he strives to narrow the gap with Labour leader Keir Starmer. Historical data reveals substantial GBP/USD fluctuations preceding changes in the Prime Minister's office, UK need to hold a election not later than January 2025.
John Major -822pips
Tony Blair -966pips
Gordon Brown -1200pips
David Cameron -2253 pips Brexit referendum
Theresa May -599 pips
Boris Johnson then Liz Truss - 2101 pips
The economy of UK marked by a stagnant Q3 GDP and inflation at 4.7%, while the BoE benchmark rate of 5.25%.
The property market shows signs of cooling. Technically, GBPUSD's Stochastic in overbought territory suggests a potential shorting opportunity, especially if Sunak faces increased scrutiny in 2024, potentially driving GBP towards 1.1.
John Major -822pips
Tony Blair -966pips
Gordon Brown -1200pips
David Cameron -2253 pips Brexit referendum
Theresa May -599 pips
Boris Johnson then Liz Truss - 2101 pips
The economy of UK marked by a stagnant Q3 GDP and inflation at 4.7%, while the BoE benchmark rate of 5.25%.
The property market shows signs of cooling. Technically, GBPUSD's Stochastic in overbought territory suggests a potential shorting opportunity, especially if Sunak faces increased scrutiny in 2024, potentially driving GBP towards 1.1.
Comment:
British banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered )hold the most significant exposure among Western banks to China and Hong Kong.