Measurement of Turning Points for Market Entry & Exit
The assessment and the measurement of the "turning points" or the "lower and upper ceilings/bands" of the "daily high/low", "interdays high/low", "weekly high/low", "monthly high/low", "short term high/low" or short term price stability or short term exchange rate target zone" and the "medium term high/low" of medium term exchange rate target zone or medium term price stability is and perhaps the most important data for market entry and exit decision making tools to trade the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low, monthly high/low, short term high/low and the medium term high/low.
The turning points represent the average traded weighted rates of collective currency pairs at the lower or at the upper ceilings/bands of the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low, monthly high/low, short term high/low and medium term high/low.
Global central banks' mandate is to manage and maintain the medium term high/low and the short term high/low by the global policies (Plaza, Louvre, EMS and consensus). The estimated high/low of the medium and short terms are estimated by using "time series currency band" by currency band theory. This however is "estimation". The actual medium and short term high/low is assessed and measured by "time series interest rate differential based currency band" in compliance to "equilibrium exchange rate theory". Thus, the medium and short term high/low are the combination of target zone theory, currency band theory and the equilibrium exchange rate theory.
The average traded weighted rates at the upper and lower ceilings/bands (turning points) of the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low and the monthly high/low are assessed and measured by the "time series interest rate differential based currency band". The accuracy of the measurement could be indicated by the Brownian motion stochastic chart interior the daily, interdays, weeky and monthly bands by the Brownian motion process theory. The Brownian motion stochastic chart could be in harmony and disharmony. Thus, the actual average traded weighted rates measured by the time series interest rate differential based currency band could be adjusted by the harmony of the Brownian motion stochastic chart interior the daily, interdays, weeky and monthly bands. The Brownian motion disharmony is caused by macro and micro news, rumors, opinions, speculations and the likes but the disharmony will be returned to harmony driven by the actual price measurement.
The global macro directional price trends are assessed and measured by the U-shape band of the time series currency band. The macro directional price trends however could be changes temporary by interest rate policy and therefore the actual global macro directional price trends are adjusted to the U-shape band of the time series interest rate differential based currency band. This changes are also assessable and measurable by the S-curve band of the time series currency band and the time series interest rate differential based currency band. The U-shape band of the time series currency band represents the "economic geography of currency trade" or "economic geography of trade". This is the prime indicators for assessing and measuring the "global macro capital flow" by economic geography Asian, North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Africa. This indicator also useful to gauge which economic geography will be in economic and financial recession by the "capital out-flowing". This, however could be seen and experienced in 10-20 years economic cycles.
The directional trading of the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low and the monthly high/low as well as the short term high/low and the medium term high/low shall be in parallel to the global macro directional price trends. And, should the directional trading is against the global macro directional price trends then the trading is "speculative". Speculative trading however could be feasible if and when the average traded weighted rates are assessable and measurable for trading, but the directional trading in parallel to the global marco directional price trends tend to be at lower risk, the so called "trend-following trading" or also called "momentum trading" by IMF/BIS.
The turning points represent the average traded weighted rates of collective currency pairs at the lower or at the upper ceilings/bands of the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low, monthly high/low, short term high/low and medium term high/low.
Global central banks' mandate is to manage and maintain the medium term high/low and the short term high/low by the global policies (Plaza, Louvre, EMS and consensus). The estimated high/low of the medium and short terms are estimated by using "time series currency band" by currency band theory. This however is "estimation". The actual medium and short term high/low is assessed and measured by "time series interest rate differential based currency band" in compliance to "equilibrium exchange rate theory". Thus, the medium and short term high/low are the combination of target zone theory, currency band theory and the equilibrium exchange rate theory.
The average traded weighted rates at the upper and lower ceilings/bands (turning points) of the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low and the monthly high/low are assessed and measured by the "time series interest rate differential based currency band". The accuracy of the measurement could be indicated by the Brownian motion stochastic chart interior the daily, interdays, weeky and monthly bands by the Brownian motion process theory. The Brownian motion stochastic chart could be in harmony and disharmony. Thus, the actual average traded weighted rates measured by the time series interest rate differential based currency band could be adjusted by the harmony of the Brownian motion stochastic chart interior the daily, interdays, weeky and monthly bands. The Brownian motion disharmony is caused by macro and micro news, rumors, opinions, speculations and the likes but the disharmony will be returned to harmony driven by the actual price measurement.
The global macro directional price trends are assessed and measured by the U-shape band of the time series currency band. The macro directional price trends however could be changes temporary by interest rate policy and therefore the actual global macro directional price trends are adjusted to the U-shape band of the time series interest rate differential based currency band. This changes are also assessable and measurable by the S-curve band of the time series currency band and the time series interest rate differential based currency band. The U-shape band of the time series currency band represents the "economic geography of currency trade" or "economic geography of trade". This is the prime indicators for assessing and measuring the "global macro capital flow" by economic geography Asian, North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Africa. This indicator also useful to gauge which economic geography will be in economic and financial recession by the "capital out-flowing". This, however could be seen and experienced in 10-20 years economic cycles.
The directional trading of the daily high/low, interdays high/low, weekly high/low and the monthly high/low as well as the short term high/low and the medium term high/low shall be in parallel to the global macro directional price trends. And, should the directional trading is against the global macro directional price trends then the trading is "speculative". Speculative trading however could be feasible if and when the average traded weighted rates are assessable and measurable for trading, but the directional trading in parallel to the global marco directional price trends tend to be at lower risk, the so called "trend-following trading" or also called "momentum trading" by IMF/BIS.
Comment:
I run the trading for "daily high/low" by the combined time series interest rate differential based currency band and Brownian motion stochastic shart interior the daily high/low band with current performance 23 % to 46% daily. I look to see the consistency and the stability of performance for 3-6 months to confirm the accuracy of the measurement on the average prices.
Comment:
I also run the daily/high low band for option trading with superior trading performance. Too high to mention.
Comment:
Market Entry and Exit Timing:
No specific timing for market entry and exit for daily high/low trade. It is simply based on the performance of the upper and lower ceiling of the daily band. Price could be fluctuated interior the daily band.
Forget not, daily band is "dynamic" and may widened and narrowed. For example, every Friday afternoon session the width (wide) of the daily band could be narrowed and Monday's afternoon the width (wide) of daily band could be widened.
In general, the turning points at the lower and the upper ceilings of the daily band could be in Wellington Opening during Asian session or London opening during Euroean session and or NY opening during US session as well as at NY closing. The average traded weighted rates always adjusted to each other. For example, the price of AUDUSD always adjusted to AUDCHF, AUDJPY and the price of GBPAUD always adjusted to GBPUSD and AUDUSD. Their adjustment could be during Asian, European or US session. By using Brownian motion stochastic interior the currency band, all price movements could be seen in real live of what price to be adjusted by what prices.
No specific timing for market entry and exit for daily high/low trade. It is simply based on the performance of the upper and lower ceiling of the daily band. Price could be fluctuated interior the daily band.
Forget not, daily band is "dynamic" and may widened and narrowed. For example, every Friday afternoon session the width (wide) of the daily band could be narrowed and Monday's afternoon the width (wide) of daily band could be widened.
In general, the turning points at the lower and the upper ceilings of the daily band could be in Wellington Opening during Asian session or London opening during Euroean session and or NY opening during US session as well as at NY closing. The average traded weighted rates always adjusted to each other. For example, the price of AUDUSD always adjusted to AUDCHF, AUDJPY and the price of GBPAUD always adjusted to GBPUSD and AUDUSD. Their adjustment could be during Asian, European or US session. By using Brownian motion stochastic interior the currency band, all price movements could be seen in real live of what price to be adjusted by what prices.
Comment:
Target of Profit and Stop Loss Management
The daily high/low trading operation is very interesting by allowing the trade every single day. If the daily high/low of the NZD-pegged pairs to be missed for some reason then it could be replaced by AUD-pegged pairs, and if the AUD-pegged pairs to be missed then they could be replaced by EUR-pegged pairs, and of the EUR-pegged pairs also to be missed then they could be replaced by GBP-pegged pairs, and or if all of them to be missed then they can be replaced by the CAD-pegged pairs. At such, there is always a chance to trade the daily high/low of one from the seven currencies.
The width (wide) of the daily band from day to day however not similar, it could be narrower in Monday and wider in Friday or may flat in Wednesday. Thus, it could be 30 PIPs, 50 PIPs, 100 PIPs or more. The widest average is GBP-pegged pairs almost 100 PIPs daily and more. These are the target and measurable by measring the width (wide) of the daily band.
If and when the entry made at actual average traded weighted rate then the stop loss could be managed for 15-30 PIPs, including GBP-pegged pairs. If the 15-30 PIPs to be touched then the measurement is error.
The daily high/low trading operation is very interesting by allowing the trade every single day. If the daily high/low of the NZD-pegged pairs to be missed for some reason then it could be replaced by AUD-pegged pairs, and if the AUD-pegged pairs to be missed then they could be replaced by EUR-pegged pairs, and of the EUR-pegged pairs also to be missed then they could be replaced by GBP-pegged pairs, and or if all of them to be missed then they can be replaced by the CAD-pegged pairs. At such, there is always a chance to trade the daily high/low of one from the seven currencies.
The width (wide) of the daily band from day to day however not similar, it could be narrower in Monday and wider in Friday or may flat in Wednesday. Thus, it could be 30 PIPs, 50 PIPs, 100 PIPs or more. The widest average is GBP-pegged pairs almost 100 PIPs daily and more. These are the target and measurable by measring the width (wide) of the daily band.
If and when the entry made at actual average traded weighted rate then the stop loss could be managed for 15-30 PIPs, including GBP-pegged pairs. If the 15-30 PIPs to be touched then the measurement is error.
Comment:
At Asian morning session, I short/sell AUDCAD, GBPCAD and EURCAD from their average traded weighted rate at their upper ceiling of daily high/low to look for 50-100 PIPs to US opening session or to NY Closing.
Comment:
At US Opening session, I plan to short/sell NADUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD from their average traded weighted rate at their upper ceiling of daily high/low to look for 50-100 PIPs to NY Closing - Asian morning session.
Comment:
At US opening session or European closing time, I plan to long GBPNZD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD from their average traded weighted rates at their lower ceiling of daily high/low to look for 50-100 PIPs to NY-closing or Asian morning session.
Comment:
The short trade on AUDCAD ended for 41 PIPs, GBPCAD ended for 72 PIPs and EURCAD ended for 9 PIPs (Asian to NY-Closing/Asian
Comment:
The short trade on NZDUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD is still underway and may extended to this Asian morning session and perhaps near to European opening session. The lower ceilings of daily high/low band not reached yet.
Comment:
The long traded on GBPNZD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD not executed. Looking to long by this Asian morning session if the lower ceilings could be reached.
Comment:
Today, Monday's trading ended profit for 9.56 % from AUDCAD, GBPCAD and EURCAD, excluding floating profit 11.88 % from current short trade NZDUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, including long trade on USDCAD.
Comment:
Long trade on GBPAUD and GBPNZD will be executed by this Asian morning session at 1.8280 and 1.9280 to target 76-100 PIPs at US opening session.
Comment:
Long trade on GBPUSD closed for 64 PIPs. GBPUSD will be bullish to upward to daily high supported by the GBPAUD GBPNZD GBPCAD.