GBPUSD - 28 September 2021 [Part 2]
Current Market Condition:
Market Structure (MS) & Order Flow (OF):
Daily (Inner structure): Bullish OF, but price has recently turned into sideway movement (ranging). Price failed to take out the high and the low and now is in the 0.25 of the range, mitigated previous daily extreme demand and give a 4H CHoCH.
4H (Inner Structure): Bullish OF, price mitigated daily extreme demand and turn 4H back into bullish. We can see price is now in the pullback of the recent 4H bullish leg.
15m (Major Structure): Bullish OF, price is now in the pullback of the 15m bullish leg which is the same with the 4H bullish leg.
15m (Inner Structure): Bearish OF, price is in the pullback of 15m/4H bullish leg but price respected the supply in the inner structure which indicates price has insufficient to create a new 4H/15m HH. Price respect the supply by giving a 15m CHoCH within the major structure and the EQL becomes a great area to target.
Momentum:
Daily: Price has insufficient bullish momentum to continue the inner daily bullish OF after mitigating the IFC.
4H: Lack of bullish momentum to create a new HH. The most recent impulse leg shows some bullish momentum kicking in but price once pullback to the discount but failed to create a new HH, expect price to give another deeper pullback.
15m (Inner Structure): Lack of bullish & bearish momentum. Price gives a CHoCH but the way price break the low is relatively corrective, showing a sign of losing bearish momentum.
Trade Idea: Both
If price react to the supply we can look for SHORT as price has a great chance to continue the bearish until it take out the EQL. If price give a strong reaction to the demand we may look for LONG too as 4H we are in bullish OF and price has pullback to the discount, it might continue the OF from wherever it wants.
Best way to play now is to follow the momentum as the bias is not clear. When Frankfurt open, we follow the momentum, if price respect the supply and take out the demand we play the SHORT, vice versa.
Market Structure (MS) & Order Flow (OF):
Daily (Inner structure): Bullish OF, but price has recently turned into sideway movement (ranging). Price failed to take out the high and the low and now is in the 0.25 of the range, mitigated previous daily extreme demand and give a 4H CHoCH.
4H (Inner Structure): Bullish OF, price mitigated daily extreme demand and turn 4H back into bullish. We can see price is now in the pullback of the recent 4H bullish leg.
15m (Major Structure): Bullish OF, price is now in the pullback of the 15m bullish leg which is the same with the 4H bullish leg.
15m (Inner Structure): Bearish OF, price is in the pullback of 15m/4H bullish leg but price respected the supply in the inner structure which indicates price has insufficient to create a new 4H/15m HH. Price respect the supply by giving a 15m CHoCH within the major structure and the EQL becomes a great area to target.
Momentum:
Daily: Price has insufficient bullish momentum to continue the inner daily bullish OF after mitigating the IFC.
4H: Lack of bullish momentum to create a new HH. The most recent impulse leg shows some bullish momentum kicking in but price once pullback to the discount but failed to create a new HH, expect price to give another deeper pullback.
15m (Inner Structure): Lack of bullish & bearish momentum. Price gives a CHoCH but the way price break the low is relatively corrective, showing a sign of losing bearish momentum.
Trade Idea: Both
If price react to the supply we can look for SHORT as price has a great chance to continue the bearish until it take out the EQL. If price give a strong reaction to the demand we may look for LONG too as 4H we are in bullish OF and price has pullback to the discount, it might continue the OF from wherever it wants.
Best way to play now is to follow the momentum as the bias is not clear. When Frankfurt open, we follow the momentum, if price respect the supply and take out the demand we play the SHORT, vice versa.
Comment:
Price sweep structural LQ + mitigate 5m D2S + 1m CHoCH + 15s Flip + respect to supply + Inducement found = Trade Valid
Comment:
TP 1 Hit: +5.7R
Potential TP Area: +9.25R & Running
But I aimed for the EQL
Potential TP Area: +9.25R & Running
But I aimed for the EQL
Comment:
TP 2 Hit: +29R
Comment:
Idea Update, price is now swept the major liquidity, if price wants to continue the 4H/15m bullish OF, it will might use this demand as catalyst to reverse the momentum. The 5m Supply with liquidation is a very strong indication, if price broke this supply, we can start to play LONG.