News background and trading ideas on 20.09.2018

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Thursday promises to be a relatively calm day. Attention should be paid only to the statistics on retail sales in the UK. Speaking of the UK. Yesterday's statistics on inflation data from the Kingdom was very pleasantly surprised: inflation in the UK in August accelerated to 2.7% y / y against the forecast of 2.4%. For the Bank of England this is a strong signal in favor of further rate hikes. So, it's a serious bullish signal for the pound.

A series of macroeconomic positive for the UK continues (before that there were data on GDP and the labor market). But yesterday the pound was hurt by Teresa May, who, according to media reports, allegedly abandoned Michel Barnier's improved proposal on the Irish border.

Everything goes as we expected: the dynamics of the pound is determined primarily by news from the fields of Brexit. As for yesterday's events, nothing terrible has happened. There is a normal bidding process, in which each side tries to squeeze out a maximum of concessions from opponents. So, fall of the pound is a reason for buying it. This is our # 1 trading idea for today.

Another extremely attractive position is the sale of the Russian ruble , which quite unexpectedly soared after the rate hike was raised by the Bank of Russia. Yes, now the "stars" have risen in favor of the ruble - the rate has been raised, the oil is rising again, the tax period in Russia, coupled with the refusal to comply with the budget rule, are pushing the ruble higher. But all these are temporary factors. Therefore, in our opinion, the optimism is temporary, and hence the current prices of the ruble – is an excellent opportunity for its sales. This is our trading idea #2 for today. We have already written about the fundamental problems of the ruble in previous reviews, so we will not repeat it.

Today, the results of the NAFTA negotiations can be announced. And although the Canadian dollar against the US has already increased by 100+ points (which our readers could earn, if they would follow our recommendations published at the start of the week), the potential for further strengthening is still present. So, the sale of the USDCAD pair is trading idea # 3 for today.

In addition, do not forget to sell the yen.
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